Multiple Brooding and Productivity of a Neotropical Migrant, the Black-Throated Blue Warbler (Dendroica caerulescens), in an Unfragmented Temperate Forest

Holmes, Richard T.; Sherry, Thomas W.; Marra, Peter P.; Petit, Kenneth E.

doi:10.2307/4088201

Cited by 152 publications

(92 citation statements)

References 25 publications

(7 reference statements)

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“…Older males precede yearling males and females in spring migration by a few days to a week or more (Hubbard 1965, Holmes 1994. Detailed information on the breeding ecology of the species can be found in Holmes et al (1992Holmes et al ( , 1996, Rodenhouse and Holmes (1992), and Holmes (1994).…”

Section: The Focal Speciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In some instances, most regional reproduction could occur in areas that exhibit low yearling recruitment. Rather than reflecting fluctuations in local productivity, as suggested by Holmes et al (1992), variance in annual recruitment of yearlings may serve to distinguish source from sink populations (see Winker et al 1995). Those that exhibit low variance in yearling recruitment and high population densities might be considered to fall toward the source end of the source-sink continuum, and vice versa.…”

Section: Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…78,No. 8 Multiple brooding and source-sink dynamics Holmes et al (1992) concluded that multiple brooding in the Black-throated Blue Warbler accounted for most of the annual variation of young fledged per female. An average of 48% of females at Hubbard Brook initiated second clutches after successfully fledging a first brood.…”

Section: Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Geographic Clines of Age Ratios of Black-Throated Blue Warblers (Dendroica Caerulescens)

Graves¹

1997

Ecology

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Abstract. I investigated the age structure of breeding populations of Black-throated Blue Warblers {Dendroica caerulescens) in eastern North America. The proportion of yearling males increases as relative abundance decreases toward the margins of the breeding range. Geographic dines in age structure are hypothesized to correlate with gradients in habitat quality radiating from the Appalachian Mountains, the probable axis of source populations. Data from the southern Appalachians suggest that despotism of older males may impose a ceiling on the proportion of yearlings in saturated high-quality habitats, regardless of local productivity. Populations that exhibit low variance in yearling recruitment and high population densities may fall toward the "source" end of the "source-sink" continuum, and vice versa. It is hypothesized that the regional distribution of source and sink populations of the Black-throated Blue Warbler might closely mirror the prevalence of successful multiple brooding.

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Section: The Focal Speciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Geographic Clines of Age Ratios of Black-Throated Blue Warblers (Dendroica Caerulescens)

Graves¹

1997

Ecology

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“…In such cases, annual reproductive success may be dependent on the number of broods rather than on clutch size or the timing of breeding (e.g. Davies 1992, Holmes et al 1992, Weggler 2006. However, direct measurement of the number of reproductive attempts that individuals make within a season requires continuous monitoring of a sample of marked animals.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Holmes et al 1992, Smith & Marquiss 1995, Evans Ogden & Stutchbury 1996. However, triple brooding (three broods reared in a single year) is much less common (e.g.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Frequency of multiple brooding in Ring Ouzels, including first documented cases of triple brooding

2012

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Climate‐mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core

Lewis

Cooper

Chandler

et al. 2023

Ecological Monographs

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Understanding the demographic drivers of range contractions is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long‐term demography dataset for the black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040. The trailing edge population at the low‐elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017. The local population at the mid‐elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid‐elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low‐elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low‐elevation plot. This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor‐quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate‐mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black‐throated blue warblers near the warm‐edge range boundary at low latitudes and low elevations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions.

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Multiple Brooding and Productivity of a Neotropical Migrant, the Black-Throated Blue Warbler (Dendroica caerulescens), in an Unfragmented Temperate Forest

Cited by 152 publications

References 25 publications

Geographic Clines of Age Ratios of Black-Throated Blue Warblers (Dendroica Caerulescens)

Geographic Clines of Age Ratios of Black-Throated Blue Warblers (Dendroica Caerulescens)

Frequency of multiple brooding in Ring Ouzels, including first documented cases of triple brooding

Climate‐mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core

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