Multipartition model for multiple change point identification

Abstract

Among the main goals in multiple change point problems are the estimation of the number and positions of the change points, as well as the regime structure in the clusters induced by those changes. The product partition model (PPM) is a widely used approach for the detection of multiple change points. The traditional PPM assumes that change points split the set of time points in random clusters that define a partition of the time axis. It is then typically assumed that sampling model parameter values within each of these blocks are identical. Because changes in different parameters of the observational model may occur at different times, the PPM thus fails to identify the parameters that experienced those changes. A similar problem may occur when detecting changes in multivariate time series. To solve this important limitation, we introduce a multipartition model to detect multiple change points occurring in several parameters at possibly different times. The proposed model assumes that the changes experienced by each parameter generate a different random partition of the time axis, which facilitates identifying which parameters have changed and when they do so. We discuss a partially collapsed Gibbs sampler scheme to implement posterior simulation under the proposed model. We apply the proposed model to identify multiple change points in Normal means and variances and evaluate the performance of the proposed model through Monte Carlo simulations and data illustrations. Its performance is compared with some previously proposed approaches for change point problems. These studies show that the proposed model is competitive and enriches the analysis of change point problems.

Using Joint Random Partition Models for Flexible Change Point Analysis in Multivariate Processes

“…Barry and Hartigan (1992) use a prior for which prior change point probabilities are based on the so-called cohesion function studied in Yao (1984). Since Barry and Hartigan (1992) many other PPM type approaches to change point analysis have be developed (see, for example Loschi and Cruz, 2002;Loschi et al, 2003;Loschi and Cruz, 2005;Loschi et al, 2005Loschi et al, , 2010Martínez and Mena, 2014;García and Gutiérrez-Peña, 2019;Pedroso et al, 2021). In contrast to the approaches described above, there are models that do not introduce explicitly a distribution for partitions of contiguous clusters.…”