Multimodel output statistical downscaling prediction of precipitation in the Philippines and Thailand

Abstract

[1] Six dynamical seasonal model outputs, which are currently used in the APEC Climate Center Multimodel Ensemble (MME) prediction system, are employed for statistical downscaling prediction of station-scale precipitation in the Philippines and Thailand. Correlation analysis and Singular Value Decomposition Analysis are used to reveal atmosphere dynamic linkage based on the observed data other than model data. The observed linkage provides a robust basis for the choice of predictor and its range in predicted fields. In order to avoid spatial shift of predicted field away from observed climate, a movable window is set to select the most sensible area within the range of predictor for downscaling. The downscaled MME prediction is verified against observed station precipitation in a cross-validation manner, and the prediction skill is apparently improved compared with the simple composite of raw model predictions for most of the stations. Citation:

Statistical downscaling of daily mean temperature, pan evaporation and precipitation for climate change scenarios in Haihe River, China

“…According to techniques for application, SD methods can be classified into three categories: regression methods (Von Storch et al 1993;Kang et al 2007;Burger and Chen 2005); weather pattern-based approaches (Bardossy and Plate 1992); and stochastic weather generators (Richardson 1981). No matter whether the method is simple or complex, it is always based on some kind of a regression relationship.…”

Long-lead station-scale prediction of hydrological droughts in South Korea based on bivariate pattern-based downscaling

“…Note that the dynamical-statistical method introduced here adopts a "fixed predictor domain" (determined based on linkages between local drought conditions and regional-to-continental-scale circulation changes). It is possible that even better performance can be obtained by adopting a "movable window" approach for selecting the predictor domain (see Kang et al 2007Kang et al , 2009, but this might risk introducing artificial skills and that the physical interpretation is not always clear.…”

“…However, MME-based downscaling methods have been developed for just one target variable at a time, e.g. the seasonal mean precipitation (Kang et al 2007(Kang et al , 2009Sohn et al 2013a, b). In the study of Sohn et al (2013a), downscaled temperature and precipitation products were provided, but they were obtained using different large-scale circulation information.…”

“…Various downscaling approaches have been used to bridge the gap between coarse-resolution model outputs and the need for regional-to-station-scale climate information (Kang et al 2007(Kang et al , 2009Min et al 2011b;Sohn et al 2013a, b;Tung et al 2013;Ye et al 2015). In particular, combined dynamical-statistical approaches are regarded as important tools for providing quantitative forecasts (e.g.…”

Kriteria Awal Musim Tanam: Tinjauan Prediksi Waktu Tanam Padi Di Indonesia

“…Keandalan prediksi tersebut telah diuji dalam penelitian di Asia Tenggara seperti Filipina dan Thailand (Kang et al 2007), Malaysia (Juneng dan Tangang 2005), dan Indonesia (Robertson et al 2009;Vimont et al 2010;Syafril et al 2013;Surmaini et al 2015b). Penelitian lain menunjukkan bahwa ENSO berpengaruh kuat terhadap curah hujan di wilayah Indonesia pada September Desember yang merupakan periode awal MH (Hamada et al 2002;Juneng dan Tangang 2005).…”