Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Extratropics

Hegglin, Michaela I.; Gettelman, Andrew; Hoor, Peter; Krichevsky, R.; Manney, G. L.; Pan, Laura L.; Son, Seok‐Woo; Stiller, G. P.; Tilmes, Simone; Walker, Kaley A.; Eyring, Veronika; Shepherd, T. G.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Añel, Juan Antonio; Austin, J.; Baumgaertner, A. J. G.; Bekki, Slimane; Braesicke, Peter; Brühl, Christoph; Butchart, Neal; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Dameris, Martin; Dhomse, Sandip; Frith, S. M.; Garny, Hella; Hardiman, Steven C.; Jöckel, Patrick; Kinnison, D. E.; Lamarque, J. F.; Mancini, E.; Michou, Martine; Morgenstern, Olaf; Nakamura, Tetsu; Olivié, Dirk; Pawson, S.; Pitari, Giovanni; Plummer, David A.; Pyle, J. A.; Rozanov, Eugene; Scinocca, John; Shibata, Kiyotaka; Smale, Dan; Teyssèdre, H.; Tian, Wenshou; Yamashita, Yousuke

doi:10.1029/2010jd013884

Cited by 81 publications

(114 citation statements)

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“…The LMDz-REPROBUS model simulations of stratospheric ozone used to build the climatologies for the IPSL-CM5 for the 1850-2006 period have been evaluated against other chemistry-climate models and a wide range of observations (Jourdain et al 2008;Austin et al 2010a, b;Gettelman et al 2009a, b;Hegglin et al 2010;Morgenstern et al 2010). Figure 5 shows a comparison between the model-calculated and the HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) observation-based annual zonal mean distributions.…”

Section: Stratospheric Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

et al. 2012

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Global aerosol and ozone distributions and their associated radiative forcings were simulated between 1850 and 2100 following a recent historical emission dataset and under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the future. These simulations were used in an Earth System Model to account for the changes in both radiatively and chemically active compounds, when simulating the climate evolution. The past negative stratospheric ozone trends result in a negative climate forcing culminating at -0.15 W m -2 in the 1990s. In the meantime, the tropospheric ozone burden increase generates a positive climate forcing peaking at 0.41 W m -2 . The future evolution of ozone strongly depends on the RCP scenario considered. In RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, the evolution of both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone generate relatively weak radiative forcing changes until 2060-2070 followed by a relative 30 % decrease in radiative forcing by 2100. In contrast, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 model projections exhibit strongly different ozone radiative forcing trajectories. In the RCP2.6 scenario, both effects (stratospheric ozone, a negative forcing, and tropospheric ozone, a positive forcing) decline towards 1950s values while they both get stronger in the RCP8.5 scenario. Over the twentieth century, the evolution of the total aerosol burden is characterized by a strong increase after World War II until the middle of the 1980s followed by a stabilization during the last decade due to the strong decrease in sulfates in OECD countries since the 1970s. The cooling effects reach their maximal values in 1980, with -0.34 and -0.28 W m -2 respectively for direct and indirect total radiative forcings. According to the RCP scenarios, the aerosol content, after peaking around 2010, is projected to decline strongly and monotonically during the twenty-first century for the RCP8.5, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios. While for RCP6.0 the decline occurs later, after peaking around 2050. As a consequence the relative importance of the total cooling effect of aerosols becomes weaker throughout the twenty-first century compared with the positive forcing of greenhouse gases. Nevertheless, both surface ozone and aerosol content show very different regional features depending on the future scenario considered. Hence, in 2050, surface ozone changes vary between -12 and ?12 ppbv over Asia depending on the RCP projection, whereas the regional direct aerosol radiative forcing can locally exceed -3 W m -2 . This paper is a contribution to the special issue on the IPSL and CNRM global climate and Earth System Models, both developed in France and contributing to the 5th coupled model intercomparison project.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article

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Section: Stratospheric Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

et al. 2012

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“…The performance of the model was tested against observations and other CCM models [6,[8][9][10][11]. The most extended comparison project was the CCM Validation Activity in two runs (CCMVal-1, CCMVal-2), where 18 leading global CCMs are investigated by several observationally-based performance metrics in order to quantify the ability of models in reproducing the dynamics of stratospheric ozone [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Spectral Analysis and Correlation Properties of Observed and Simulated Total Column Ozone Records

et al. 2013

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We present a statistical analysis of total column ozone records obtained from satellite measurements and from two global climate chemistry models on global scale. Firstly, a spectral weight analysis is performed where the relative strength of semiannual, annual and quasi-biennial oscillations are determined with respect to the integrated power spectra. The comparison reveals some anomalies in the model representations at each spectral component. The tails of the spectra demonstrate that both models underestimate high frequency (daily) ozone variability, which might have a complex origin, since several dynamical processes affect short time changes of the ozone level at a given location. Secondly, detrended fluctuation analysis is exploited to analyze two-point correlations of anomaly time series. Both models reproduce the characteristic geographic dependence of correlation strength over the overlapping area with empirical observations (latitude band between 60• S and 60• N). The values of precise correlation exponents are hard to obtain over regions where quasi-biennial oscillations or other strong nonstationarities (ozone hole) are present. In spite of all the numerical difficulties, significant long range correlations are detected for total ozone over all geographic locations.

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“…The ExTL mean location is centered on the thermal tropopause, but the spread of the ExTL is increased compared to the free-model run. It has been shown that models simulate an ExTL deeper than observed in aircraft measurements, and shifted above the thermal tropopause (Hegglin et al, 2010). This is due to the limited vertical and horizontal resolutions of the models, as well as the lack of representativeness in the aircraft observations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…Studies using in situ aircraft measurement show that the ExTL is centered on the thermal tropopause with a narrower extent than observed in this study (Pan et al, 2004(Pan et al, , 2007. In a multi-model assessment, Hegglin et al (2010) showed that models simulate an ExTL that is wider than observed in satellite observations, and shifted above the thermal tropopause. The low vertical resolution (800 m) in the model UTLS layers and also the low horizontal resolution (2 • × 2 • ) used in this study is not sufficient to represent the sharp gradients of O 3 and CO observed at Table 2) but a lower mean value of about 0.45 km.…”

Section: Diagnostic 3: Sharpness Of the Transitionmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…Hegglin et al (2009) showed that these diagnostics can be applied to satellite measurements of O 3 , CO and H 2 O to characterize the ExTL seasonal and latitudinal variations in height and depth at the global scale. A multi-model assessment showed that models with coarse vertical resolution are unable to represent faithfully the ExTL at extratropical latitudes (Hegglin et al, 2010). Due to their coarse resolution, models overestimate the spread and the location in height of the ExTL.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Diagnosing the transition layer at extratropical latitudes using MLS O<sub>3</sub> and MOPITT CO analyses

Barré¹,

Amraoui²,

Ricaud³

et al. 2013

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. The behavior of the extratropical transition layer (ExTL) is investigated using a chemistry transport model (CTM) and analyses derived from assimilation of MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) O3 and MOPITT (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere) CO data. We firstly focus on a stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) case study that occurred on 15 August 2007 over the British Isles (50° N, 10° W). We evaluate the effect of data assimilation on the O3–CO correlations. It is shown that data assimilation disrupts the relationship in the transition region. When MLS O3 is assimilated, CO and O3 values are not consistent between each other, leading to unphysical correlations at the STE location. When MLS O3 and MOPITT CO assimilated fields are taken into account in the diagnostics the relationship happens to be more physical. We then use O3–CO correlations to quantify the effect of data assimilation on the height and depth of the ExTL. When the free-model run O3 and CO fields are used in the diagnostics, the ExTL distribution is found 1.1 km above the thermal tropopause and is 2.6 km wide (2σ). MOPITT CO analyses only slightly sharpen (by −0.02 km) and lower (by −0.2 km) the ExTL distribution. MLS O3 analyses provide an expansion (by +0.9 km) of the ExTL distribution, suggesting a more intense O3 mixing. However, the MLS O3 analyses ExTL distribution shows a maximum close to the thermal tropopause and a mean location closer to the thermal tropopause (+0.45 km). When MLS O3 and MOPITT CO analyses are used together, the ExTL shows a mean location that is the closest to the thermal tropopause (+0.16 km). We also extend the study at the global scale on 15 August 2007 and for the month of August 2007. MOPITT CO analyses still show a narrower chemical transition between stratosphere and troposphere than the free-model run. MLS O3 analyses move the ExTL toward the troposphere and broaden it. When MLS O3 analyses and MOPITT CO analyses are used together, the ExTL matches the thermal tropopause poleward of 50°.

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Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Extratropics

Cited by 81 publications

References 110 publications

Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

Comparative Spectral Analysis and Correlation Properties of Observed and Simulated Total Column Ozone Records

Diagnosing the transition layer at extratropical latitudes using MLS O<sub>3</sub> and MOPITT CO analyses

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Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Extratropics

Cited by 81 publications

References 110 publications

Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

Comparative Spectral Analysis and Correlation Properties of Observed and Simulated Total Column Ozone Records

Diagnosing the transition layer at extratropical latitudes using MLS O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; and MOPITT CO analyses

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Product

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Diagnosing the transition layer at extratropical latitudes using MLS O<sub>3</sub> and MOPITT CO analyses