Multilevel Mixed-Effects Models to Identify Contributing Factors on Freight Vehicle Crash Severity

Abstract

Freight vehicle crashes are more serious than regular vehicle crashes because they are likely to lead to major damage and injury once they occur; therefore, countermeasures are needed. The fatality rate from freight vehicle crashes is 1.5 times higher than that of all other accidents, and the death rate from expressway freight vehicle crashes continues to increase. In this study, the ten-freight-vehicle crash severity models (the ordered logit and probit model, the multinomial logit and probit model, mixed-effects logit and probit model, random-effects ordered logit and probit model, and multilevel mixed-effects ordered logit and probit model) are used to analyze the freight vehicle crash severity factors. The model was constructed using data collected from expressways over eight years, and 13 factors were derived to increase the severity of crashes and 7 factors to reduce the severity of crashes. As a result of comparing the 10 constructed models using AIC and BIC, the multilevel mixed-effects ordered probit model showed the best performance. It is expected that it can contribute to improving the safety of freight vehicles in the expressway section by utilizing factors related to the severity of crashes derived from this study.

Fatal crashes and rare events logistic regression: an exploratory empirical study

“…Numerous studies have been undertaken to explore the relationships between various risk factors-such as sex, age, educational attainment, weather conditions, and alcohol consumption-and the outcomes of traffic crashes (4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10). Given that crash severity is generally categorized by levels, discrete outcome models have been instrumental in investigating the correlations between fatal crashes and contributory factors (11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)).…”