Multifractal Dynamics and Complexity Transformation in the Tanker Freight Market

Abstract

This research investigates the complex transformation of the Baltic Clean and Dirty Tankers markets from 1998 to 2023. Our study quantifies the market multifractality in two distinct periods, from 1998 to 2010 and 2010 to 2023. We compare multifractal measures of the original, surrogated, and shuffled data, which indicate high multifractality and a complex market structure influenced by temporal organization and inherent volatility. Shuffled data analysis emphasizes the critical role of temporal sequences within market behaviour. Additionally, the study delves into external factors such as regulatory changes, economic disturbances, technological innovation, and environmental concerns contributing to market complexity. A distinct shift in multifractal values between the two periods suggests an evolution from crisis-induced complexities to a market influenced by diversified and modern dynamics. Our findings offer a concise understanding of the multifractal nature of the tanker markets and how global crises can impact the markets, emphasizing the importance of considering systemic risks in freight market analysis.