Multiform flood risk in a rapidly changing world: what we do not do, what we should and why it matters

Kruczkiewicz, Andrew; Cian, Fabio; Monasterolo, Irene; Baldassarre, Giuliano Di; Caldas, Astrid; Royz, Moriah; Glasscoe, Margaret; Ranger, Nicola; Aalst, Maarten van

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac7ed9

Cited by 20 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 46 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…However, in this study, HI was calculated using daily mean relative humidity due to limitations in the temporal resolution of the NEX‐GDDP‐CMIP6 data, which may cause some uncertainties, especially in areas with high temperatures and large differences between the daily mean humidity and maximum humidity (Text S2 in Supporting Information S1 presents a sensitivity experiment about inaccuracy in humidity leading to HI bias). In addition, the WAP was originally designed to be used as an indicator of pluvial flooding (Y. Chen et al., 2021; Liao et al., 2021; Lu, 2009), but the historical records of flooding are incomplete (Kruczkiewicz et al., 2022; Tellman et al., 2021), and current predictions of future flooding lack robustness. The use of the extreme state of the WAP to represent flooding is an assumption that lacks consideration of nonprecipitation factors such as land cover and flood management infrastructure.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Global Population Exposure to Record‐Breaking Climate Extremes

Li,

Liu,

Wang

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The increase in record‐breaking extreme events caused by climate change poses a threat to human health and well‐being. Understanding the future impacts of such events on global populations can provide decision‐making support for policies aiming to mitigate climate change. Here, we investigated the population exposure to eight climate extreme indices and drivers of exposure trajectories based on National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 and population projection data under four shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°. The results show that by the mid‐twenty‐first century, most regions worldwide, especially Africa and South America, will continue to experience record‐breaking temperatures and compound drought and heatwaves (CDHWs). Regarding population exposure, under SSP3‐7.0 in the late twenty‐first century, the mean value of the multimodel median expected annual exposure (EAE) of all extreme temperature indices and CDHW reaches 8.12 billion persons per year. Population exposure hotspots will be concentrated in Central Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and East Asia, mostly in developing countries, where 55.01%–87.42% of the EAE is found. The drivers of exposure trajectories are spatially heterogeneous. The increase in record‐breaking probability contributes more than population growth to EAE growth in most regions of the world except Central Asia, the Middle East, and most of Africa. These findings reveal the future trajectories of record‐breaking probabilities and population exposures for climate extremes, which can inform understanding of the intersections between climate change and population change and future risk management.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Global Population Exposure to Record‐Breaking Climate Extremes

Li,

Liu,

Wang

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…People’s ability to take advantage of increased water availability associated with flooding is highly dependent on adequate and timely intervention, particularly by state governments and through shifts in governance structures for climate services/programs ( 56 , 57 ). Resilience to food insecurity may also result from individuals’ or households’ income and skillset diversification, particularly away from farming activities that stand to be heavily negatively impacted by floods ( 34 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of flooding on food security across Africa

Reed

Anderson

Kruczkiewicz

et al. 2022

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Recent record rainfall and flood events have prompted increased attention to flood impacts on human systems. Information regarding flood effects on food security is of particular importance for humanitarian organizations and is especially valuable across Africa's rural areas that contribute to regional food supplies. We quantitatively evaluate where and to what extent flooding impacts food security across Africa, using a Granger causality analysis and panel modeling approaches. Within our modeled areas, we find that ∼12% of the people that experienced food insecurity from 2009 to 2020 had their food security status affected by flooding. Furthermore, flooding and its associated meteorological conditions can simultaneously degrade food security locally while enhancing it at regional spatial scales, leading to large variations in overall food security outcomes. Dedicated data collection at the intersection of flood events and associated food security measures across different spatial and temporal scales are required to better characterize the extent of flood impact and inform preparedness, response, and recovery needs.

show abstract

“…UNHCR and refugee hosting countries make limited use of environmental assessments in planning refugee camps 6 , gauging potential impacts of climate change 36 or the frequency of natural hazards in refugee camps 37 . At the camp-level, refugee camp managers rarely incorporate structured approaches to climate-informed decision-making 6 , 38 , this is not necessarily due to resource constraints or a lack of expertise but instead often results from an oversaturation of climate and geophysical products 39 and an absence of a framework that integrates relevant environmental and climatic datasets to inform spatially explicit and timely decisions 40 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Indexing climatic and environmental exposure of refugee camps with a case study in East Africa

Kruczkiewicz

Hoek

2023

Sci Rep

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study presents a novel approach to systematically measure climatic and environmental exposure in refugee camps using remote sensing and geospatial data. Using a case study of seventeen refugee camps across five countries in East Africa, we develop a climatic and environmental exposure index to quantify each camp’s exposure relative to a population of simulated camp locations within the hosting country. Our results show that seven of seventeen refugee camps are within the upper two quartiles of exposure relative to a simulated population, suggesting that more than six-hundred thousand refugees living in these camps face elevated exposure compared to other potential camp locations. This method stands to improve the process of gathering and analyzing climatic and environmental data on geographically remote humanitarian spaces in a reliable, low-cost, and standardized manner. Automation and refinement of this index could enable real-time updates on climatic and environmental exposure to support decision-making related to disaster risk reduction in refugee camp management.

show abstract

Multiform flood risk in a rapidly changing world: what we do not do, what we should and why it matters

Cited by 20 publications

References 46 publications

Future Global Population Exposure to Record‐Breaking Climate Extremes

Future Global Population Exposure to Record‐Breaking Climate Extremes

The impact of flooding on food security across Africa

Indexing climatic and environmental exposure of refugee camps with a case study in East Africa

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About