Multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean and feedback on the winter climate in CMIP5 control simulations

Peings, Yannick; Simpkins, Graham; Magnúsdóttir, Guðrún

doi:10.1002/2015jd024107

Cited by 48 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 92 publications

(194 reference statements)

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“…Recent analyses of an extended atmospheric reanalysis dataset suggest that this is indeed the case; the observed AMV is anticorrelated with winter NAO conditions [30•, 31•, 83]. This observed relationship is also seen in some CGCMs, although it appears weak, and has been linked to AMOC-driven SST variability [35,99,100]. However, other studies find that the NAO response to AMV is primarily due to tropical SST forcing which may be only indirectly related to AMOC-driven heat convergence [101].…”

Section: Foundations Mechanisms Of Decadal To Multi-decadal Atlantic mentioning

confidence: 86%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

Yeager

Robson

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

130

122

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Purpose of Review Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems. Recent Findings The AMOC-or more precisely, the buoyancy-forced thermohaline circulation (THC) that encompasses both overturning and gyre circulations-appears to underpin decadal timescale prediction skill in the subpolar North Atlantic in retrospective forecasts. Skill in predicting more wide-ranging climate variations, including those over land, is more limited, but there are indications this could improve with more advanced models. Summary Preliminary successes in the field of initialized Atlantic climate prediction confirm the climate relevance of low-frequency Atlantic Ocean dynamics and suggest that useful decadal climate prediction is a realizable goal.

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Section: Foundations Mechanisms Of Decadal To Multi-decadal Atlantic mentioning

confidence: 86%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

Yeager

Robson

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

130

122

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“…Correcting the mean state North Atlantic SSS and AMOC biases in CGCMs might improve the pattern and amplitude of AMV‐related SST and surface turbulent heat fluxes (Drews & Greatbatch, , ; Park et al, ). The impact of AMV on the anticorrelated multidecadal variability in winter NAO is substantially underestimated in most CGCMs (e.g., Peings et al, ; Ting et al, ), due to the underestimated internally generated AMV signal and associated surface turbulent heat flux anomalies (Peings et al, ). This is consistent with the underestimation of internal multidecadal winter NAO/North Atlantic jet stream variability in many CGCMs' historical simulations (Kravtsov, ; X. Wang, Li, Sun, & Liu, ; Kim, Yeager, Chang, & Danabasoglu, ; Simpson et al, ; Xu et al, ).…”

Section: Conclusion and Challenging Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Zhang

Sutton

Danabasoglu

et al. 2019

Reviews of Geophysics

336

362

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By synthesizing recent studies employing a wide range of approaches (modern observations, paleo reconstructions, and climate model simulations), this paper provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and associated climate impacts. There is strong observational and modeling evidence that multidecadal AMOC variability is a crucial driver of the observed AMV and associated climate impacts and an important source of enhanced decadal predictability and prediction skill. The AMOC‐AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV. Furthermore, this synthesis also points to a leading role of the AMOC in a range of AMV‐related climate phenomena having enormous societal and economic implications, for example, Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts; Sahel and Indian monsoons; Atlantic hurricanes; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate over Europe, North America, and Asia; Arctic sea ice and surface air temperature; and hemispheric‐scale surface temperature. Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a similar linkage between multidecadal AMOC variability and AMV and many associated climate impacts may also have existed in the preindustrial era, that AMV has enhanced multidecadal power significantly above a red noise background, and that AMV is not primarily driven by external forcing. The role of the AMOC in AMV and associated climate impacts has been underestimated in most state‐of‐the‐art climate models, posing significant challenges but also great opportunities for substantial future improvements in understanding and predicting AMV and associated climate impacts.

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“…Lastly, the oceanic circulation could also have an impact on the large‐scale atmospheric modes of variability. In many models, the SST and sea ice anomalies related to the AMOC or the AMV may cause a significant atmospheric response albeit weak (Gastineau & Frankignoul, ; Peings et al, ; Peings & Magnusdottir, ). For instance, in IPSL‐CM5A‐LR, a negative and eastward shifted North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern occurs as a response to the subpolar SST anomalies (Gastineau et al, ), and the positive phase of the NAO was also found to increase the AMOC a few years later (Gastineau & Frankignoul, ), so that the coupling may have a positive feedback for the 20‐year AMOC variability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

North Atlantic Ocean Internal Decadal Variability: Role of the Mean State and Ocean‐Atmosphere Coupling

et al. 2018

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The origin of the decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean is investigated in a series of coupled and ocean‐only numerical experiments. Two versions of the IPSL‐CM5A model are considered, differing only by their atmospheric horizontal resolution (3.75° × 1.87° and 2.5° × 1.25°). When the ocean model is forced by the climatological surface fluxes from the low atmospheric resolution coupled model version, a 20‐year variability emerges, similar to the variability found in the coupled simulation. Such decadal variability is consistent with a large‐scale baroclinic instability of the mean flow in the west European basin. Increasing the atmospheric resolution leads to a more intense Icelandic low, which intensifies the western subpolar gyre, and warms the eastern North Atlantic subpolar gyre region. The mean state changes nearly vanish the associated internal oceanic variability under the corresponding climatological surface fluxes. Increasing the atmospheric resolution also produces a slightly weaker atmospheric stochastic forcing. Both the mean state and atmospheric variability changes are consistent with the decreasing amplitude of the variability in the coupled model. For both model versions, the amplitude of the internal oceanic variability is strongly enhanced in the presence of atmospheric stochastic forcing. Air‐sea coupling on the other hand has a moderate influence on the amplitude of the variability only in the low‐resolution model version, where the North Atlantic oceanic variability at 20 years increases by 23% due to coupling. The coupling effect is therefore modest and sensitive to the atmospheric horizontal resolution.

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Multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean and feedback on the winter climate in CMIP5 control simulations

Cited by 48 publications

References 92 publications

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

North Atlantic Ocean Internal Decadal Variability: Role of the Mean State and Ocean‐Atmosphere Coupling

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