Multiagent model of prices dispersion on the retail market of petroleum products

Abstract

In this study a multiagent model of behaviour of the dispersion of retail prices for petroleum products has been developed, depending on changes of external factors, in particular, sharp changes in wholesale prices. Therefore, there is a need for a model that would not only have the potential to test the existence of a price dispersion as a consequence of the specifics of competition in the market of petroleum products and consumer search strategies, but would have the ability to quantify the price variance as a consequence of the behaviour of individual market agents. The basis of the behaviour of market agents of this model is algorithms of price oligopolistic competition from traders and user price search strategies. Calibration models and verification of historical data of the Kyiv region, where they were previously established empirical data on the dispersion of prices showed a fairly good correspondence between the model and the actual data. In particular, the existence of a price pattern has been established at jump-like changes of wholesale prices. The presence of price strategy of buyers, which are based on the strategy of the base price, is shown. The coincidence of model and real data still needs to be improved.