Multi Station Calibration of 3D Flexible Mesh Model: A Case Study of the Columbia Estuary

Putra, Santosa Sandy; Wegen, Mick van der; Reyns, J.; Dam, Arthur van; Solomatine, D. P.; Roelvink, J.A.

doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2015.07.038

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…They solve similar formulations of the shallow water equations, considering several physical processes such as tidal forcing, tidal flats, river discharges, the rotation of the Earth, bottom friction, turbulence, sub-and supercritical flows, and water density effects (Jones and Davies, 2010;Robins and Davies, 2010;Monteiro et al, 2011;van Maren et al, 2015). These two packages were selected because they have shown to be able to accurately simulate the hydrodynamic behavior in estuarine areas, to assess the flooding risk, and to quantify the effects of climate change (Corti and Pennati, 2000;Horritt and Bates, 2002;Gomes et al, 2015;Putra et al, 2015). These OTM and D3D models were already calibrated for the Minho and Douro estuaries, and successfully demonstrated their ability to accurately represent these estuaries' characteristic hydrodynamic patterns for both frequent and extreme events (Iglesias et al, 2019b(Iglesias et al, , 2020b(Iglesias et al, , 2021Melo et al, 2020;Weber de Melo et al, 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Estuarine Hydrodynamic Forecasts Through Numerical Model Ensembles

et al. 2022

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Numerical models are essential tools for the study and analysis of the hydrodynamics of estuarine systems. However, the model results contain uncertainties, which need to be minimized to increase the accuracy of predictions. In this work, the ensemble technique is proposed as a solution to improve hydrodynamic forecasts for estuarine regions. Two numerical models, openTELEMAC-MASCARET and Delft3D, were considered for the application of this technique to two Portuguese estuaries. Superensembles for three scenarios (summer, winter, and extreme event) were built to assess the effectiveness of the technique in improving water level prediction. Various weighing techniques were tested in the construction of the ensembles. Weighing techniques that consider the previous performance of each model alone outperformed other techniques. This was observed for all scenarios considered, at all sampling points and in both studied estuaries. The effect of the ensemble size was also analyzed. It was found that the size of the set is directly related to the prediction accuracy, with the best results provided by the superensembles with the highest number of elements. It is concluded that the combined use of several hydrodynamic models reduces the uncertainty of the results and increases the reliability and consistency of predictions for estuarine regions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Estuarine Hydrodynamic Forecasts Through Numerical Model Ensembles

et al. 2022

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“…These modeling suites are able to solve similar formulations of the shallow water equations by considering several physical processes, such as tidal forcing, tidal flats, river discharges, the rotation of the Earth, bottom friction, turbulence, suband supercritical flows, and water density effects [42][43][44][45]. They were also used to simulate hydrodynamic patterns in estuarine areas, assess the flooding risk, and quantify the effects of climate change [46][47][48][49]. The models were already calibrated for the selected regions, demonstrating their ability to accurately represent the hydrodynamic characteristics of the Douro and Minho estuaries for both normal and extreme events [5,11,16,21,34].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrodynamic Model Ensembles for Climate Change Projections in Estuarine Regions

Iglésias

Bio

Melo

et al. 2022

Water

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In the current context of climate change, understanding the effects of the changing conditions on estuaries is of utmost importance to protect populations and ecosystems. Given the diversity of impacts depending on the region, there is a need for local and dedicated studies to understand and mitigate the risks. Numerical models can provide forecasts of extreme floods and sea-level rise (SLR). However, they can present inaccuracies. In this work, the ensemble technique was applied to improve the numerical modeling forecasting for estuaries by considering scenarios of extreme river flow discharges (EFDs) and SLR scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The simulations were performed for two different estuarine regions in northern Portugal, and the superensemble was constructed with the results of two different numerical models. The results differed per estuary, highlighting the importance of a local approach. For the Douro estuary dynamics, the results showed that for the EFD, the effects of the SLR were not noticeable, indicating that, in this estuary, the river component was more important than the maritime component. In contrast, the Minho estuary dynamics were found to be affected by the SLR along the whole estuarine region, indicating a maritime influence and a worsening of the flood conditions for future scenarios.

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