Multi-source dynamic ensemble prediction of infectious disease and application in COVID-19 case

Abstract

Background The development of an epidemic always exhibits multiwave oscillation owing to various anthropogenic sources of transmission. Particularly in populated areas, the large-scaled human mobility led to the transmission of the virus faster and more complex. The accurate prediction of the spread of infectious diseases remains a problem. To solve this problem, we propose a new method called the multi-source dynamic ensemble prediction (MDEP) method that incorporates a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model to improve the accuracy of the prediction result. Methods The modified SEIR model is based on the compartment model, which is suitable for local-scale and confined spaces, where human mobility on a large scale is not considered. Moreover, compartmental models cannot be used to predict multiwave epidemics. The proposed MDEP method can remedy defects in the compartment model. In this study, multi-source prediction was made on the development of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and dynamically assembled to obtain the final integrated result. We used the real epidemic data of COVID-19 in three cities in China: Beijing, Lanzhou, and Beihai. Epidemiological data were collected from 17 April, 2022 to 12 August, 2022. Results Compared to the one-wave modified SEIR model, the MDEP method can depict the multiwave development of COVID-19. The MDEP method was applied to predict the number of cumulative cases of recent COVID-19 outbreaks in the aforementioned cities in China. The average accuracy rates in Beijing, Lanzhou, and Beihai were 89.15%, 91.74%, and 94.97%, respectively. Conclusions The MDEP method improved the prediction accuracy of COVID-19. With further application to other infectious diseases, the MDEP method will provide accurate predictions of infectious diseases and aid governments make appropriate directives.