Multi-scenario and multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections for the plain areas of the Pannonian Basin

Kis, Anna; Pongrácz, Rita; Bartholy, Judit; Gocić, Milan; Milanovic, Mladen; Trajković, Slaviša

doi:10.28974/idojaras.2020.2.2

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(39 reference statements)

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“…In the light of the accelerated changes in soil hydraulic processes associated with climate change [ 10 ], it is vital to know how a particular ecosystem is affected by these changes. This is especially true for the less studied Pannonian regions, where a further decrease in rainfall amounts is expected in the future during the growing season [ 11 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plant Growth and Soil Water Content Changes under Different Inter-Row Soil Management Methods in a Sloping Vineyard

Horel

Zsigmond

2023

Plants

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The main objective of this study was to investigate soil–plant–water interactions based on field measurements of plant reflectance and soil water content (SWC) in different inter-row managed sloping vineyards. The following three different soil management applications were studied: tilled (T), cover crops (CC), and permanent grass (NT) inter-rows. We measured SWCs within the row and between rows of vines. Each investigated row utilized 7 to 10 measurement points along the slope. Topsoil SWC and temperature, leaf NDVI and chlorophyll concentrations and leaf area index (LAI) were measured every two weeks over the vegetation period (May to November) using handheld instruments. We found that management method and slope position can significantly affect the soil’s physical and chemical properties, such as clay or soil organic carbon contents. Cover crops in the inter-row significantly reduced average SWC. The in-row average topsoil SWCs and temperatures were lower in all study sites compared to the values measured in between rows. Significantly higher SWCs were observed for the upper points compared to the lower ones for CC and T treatments (58.0 and 60.9%, respectively), while the opposite was noted for NT. Grassed inter-row grapevines had significantly lower leaf chlorophyll content than the other inter-row managed sites (p < 0.001). The highest average leaf chlorophyll contents were observed in the T vineyard (16.89 CCI). Based on slope positions, the most distinguishable difference was observed for the CC: 27.7% higher chlorophyll values were observed at the top of the slope compared to the grapevine leaves at the bottom of the slope (p < 0.01). The leaf NDVI values were not as profoundly influenced by slope position in the vineyard as the chlorophyll values were. For overall LAI values, the T treatment had significantly lower values compared to NT and CC (p < 0.001). Moderate correlations were observed between NDVI and LAI and soil nitrogen and carbon content. In general, we found that both inter-row management and slope position can significantly influence soil parameters and affect plant growth, and consequently can accelerate plant stress under sub-optimal environmental conditions such as prolonged drought.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plant Growth and Soil Water Content Changes under Different Inter-Row Soil Management Methods in a Sloping Vineyard

Horel

Zsigmond

2023

Plants

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“…The study of Kis et al . (2020) gives projections of temperature and precipitation changes in the plain areas of Serbia and Hungary. The simulated changes in climate regime cover future periods 2021–2050 and 2069–2098 on a monthly scale, which are compared to the 1971–2000 reference period.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to the obtained results by simulations under different climate scenarios, higher temperatures are likely to occur in the future, while in the case of rainfall variability index shows that the number of dry years will be 5–20 from 30‐year time series in the mid‐21st century, and slightly less in the latter part of a century. Extreme dry conditions will tend to occur in 2–12 years overall during 30‐year future periods in the northern plain subregions, and somewhat more frequently in the southern subregions (i.e., in Serbia) (Kis et al ., 2020, p. 157). We expect that these results can be directly combined with the results we obtained about frequency and return periods of extreme droughts, that is, deficits of rainfall from an agricultural perspective.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme rainless periods in Pannonian Basin

Srdjević

Benka

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This paper analyses extreme meteorological droughts in the territory of the Pannonian Basin in central and southeastern Europe. Droughts are treated from an agricultural perspective as periods of consecutive days with very little or no rainfall at all. By using data from the historical period 1981-2010, time intervals longer than 20 days with less than 3 mm per day during the growing season April-September are examined to determine theoretical and empirical distributions of their number and durations. Related discrete stochastic process of extremes is analysed by the Zelenhasic-Todorovic (ZT) method, successfully applied in hydrology and meteorology (e.g., peak flows, low flows, meteorological droughts, etc.). The method is applied to 52 locations across Pannonia Basin. At each location, the Poisson distribution is determined for the number of droughts, exponential distribution for the duration of droughts, and double exponential distribution for the duration of the (annually) longest droughts. To validate the quality of modelling and the results obtained, standard statistical goodness of fit tests are used. Historical data from the period 1981-2010 indicate that the central and northern part of Hungary and the entire territory of Vojvodina Province in the north of Serbia experienced the longest droughts, on average 55-60 days. In statistical terms, across Pannonia Basin once in 100 years drought may occur with an average duration of 56 days. Theoretically longest 100-year droughts could be expected in the northern part of Hungary (up to 70 days), the eastern part of Romania (up to 68 days), and Serbia (up to 69 days). The 2-year droughts are on the average duration of 3 weeks. Generated maps of the longest droughts in the basin may help to reduce agricultural risks due to global warming and other negative impacts of climate change.

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“…-The study area covers a country, province or region (Štěpánek P. et al 2016;Dalelane, C. et al 2018;Pieczka, I. et al 2018;Vuković, A. and Mandić, M.V. 2018;Kis, A. et al 2020;Olefs, M. et al 2021;Torma, C.Z. and Kis, A.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected values of thermal and precipitation climate indices for the broader Carpathian region based on EURO-CORDEX simulations

Skarbit¹,

Unger²,

Gál³

2022

HunGeoBull

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Since our climate is in a rapid changing phase, it is crucial to get information about the regional patterns of basic climatic parameters and indices. The EURO-CORDEX project provides high quality regional climate model outputs, but these raw datasets are not convenient for the application in wider geoscience studies. According to the authors’ knowledge, there is a lack in published spatial information about basic climate parameters and indices in Central-Europe and especially in the broader Carpathian region therefore the basic aim of this study to fill this gap. The study presents the future trends in daily air temperature and precipitation and various climatic indices in the broader Carpathian Basin region during the 21st century. The indices are calculated using multi-model average temperature and precipitation data from EURO-CORDEX model simulations for the future time periods (2021–2050, 2071–2100) and emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The indices present the future trends of the heat load, energy demand as well as extreme precipitation and drought characteristics. Based on the results the temperature increase is obvious and the heat load and energy demand quantifying indices follow the temperature trend. However, the trend is difficult to evaluate in case of precipitation. The changes in the precipitation and the related indices can be considered small and appear within the regions. The future changes are the most considerable in the Carpathian Basin, but the entire examined region faces crucial changes in the following decades.

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Multi-scenario and multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections for the plain areas of the Pannonian Basin

Cited by 7 publications

References 32 publications

Plant Growth and Soil Water Content Changes under Different Inter-Row Soil Management Methods in a Sloping Vineyard

Plant Growth and Soil Water Content Changes under Different Inter-Row Soil Management Methods in a Sloping Vineyard

Extreme rainless periods in Pannonian Basin

Projected values of thermal and precipitation climate indices for the broader Carpathian region based on EURO-CORDEX simulations

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