Abstract:Abstract. In the present work we investigate the multiscale nature of the correlations for high frequency data (1 minute) in different futures markets over a period of two years, starting on the 1 st of January 2003 and ending on the 31st of December 2004. In particular, by using the concept of local Hurst exponent, we point out how the behaviour of this parameter, usually considered as a benchmark for persistency/antipersistency recognition in time series, is largely time-scale dependent in the market context… Show more
“…As mentioned previously, a b c d although stocks and foreign exchange markets have received a lot of attention, such is not the case for commodities and futures [24][25][26][27][28]. Moreover, except for interest rates, the maturity dimension has been omitted [29][30][31][32][33]13].…”
a b s t r a c tThis article presents an empirical study of 13 derivative markets for commodities and financial assets. The study goes beyond statistical analysis by including the maturity as a variable for the daily returns of futures contracts from 1998 to 2010, and for delivery dates up to 120 months. We observe that the mean and variance of the commodities follow a scaling behavior in the maturity dimension with an exponent characteristic of the Samuelson effect. The comparison between the tails of the probability distribution according to the expiration dates shows that there is a segmentation in the fat tails exponent term structure above the Lévy stable region. Finally, we compute the average tail exponent for each maturity, and we observe two regimes of extreme events for derivative markets, reminiscent of a phase diagram with a sharp transition at the 18th delivery month.
“…As mentioned previously, a b c d although stocks and foreign exchange markets have received a lot of attention, such is not the case for commodities and futures [24][25][26][27][28]. Moreover, except for interest rates, the maturity dimension has been omitted [29][30][31][32][33]13].…”
a b s t r a c tThis article presents an empirical study of 13 derivative markets for commodities and financial assets. The study goes beyond statistical analysis by including the maturity as a variable for the daily returns of futures contracts from 1998 to 2010, and for delivery dates up to 120 months. We observe that the mean and variance of the commodities follow a scaling behavior in the maturity dimension with an exponent characteristic of the Samuelson effect. The comparison between the tails of the probability distribution according to the expiration dates shows that there is a segmentation in the fat tails exponent term structure above the Lévy stable region. Finally, we compute the average tail exponent for each maturity, and we observe two regimes of extreme events for derivative markets, reminiscent of a phase diagram with a sharp transition at the 18th delivery month.
“…Although it was assumed previously that DJIA values can be well-represented by a Gaussian process, recent studies have shown that such kind of price movements has power low tails. However, it has been also shown that the tails of the power low observed for financial data are more narrow that the ones of Lévy process [15], thus allows me to classify the received estimation values for DJIA as a reliable one.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Examples include geologic [55], hydrologic [121] and finance [15,17,92,107] data; data from human sciences [53,60,64], traffic networks [32,75], turbulence [51,63], DNA sequences [10] and other data types.…”
“…[1][2][3][4][5]). Many works have been dedicated to its empirical characterization [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23], reporting strong evidence of its presence in financial markets. Several models have been proposed [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33] to reproduce these empirical facts.…”
We propose a method to measure the Hurst exponents of financial time series. The scaling of the absolute moments against the aggregation horizon of real financial processes and of both uniscaling and multiscaling synthetic processes converges asymptotically towards linearity in log-log scale. In light of this we found appropriate a modification of the usual scaling equation via the introduction of a filter function. We devised a measurement procedure which takes into account the presence of the filter function without the need of directly estimating it. We verified that the method is unbiased within the errors by applying it to synthetic time series with known scaling properties. Finally we show an application to empirical financial time series where we fit the measured scaling exponents via a second or a fourth degree polynomial, which, because of theoretical constraints, have respectively only one and two degrees of freedom. We found that on our data set there is not clear preference between the second or fourth degree polynomial. Moreover the study of the filter functions of each time series shows common patterns of convergence depending on the momentum degree.
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