Multi-Risk Assessment in the Veneto Region: An Approach to Rank Seismic and Flood Risk

Abstract

Effective disaster risk management in a given area relies on the analysis of all relevant risks potentially affecting it. A proper multi-risk evaluation requires the ranking of analyzed risks and the estimation of overall expected impacts, considering possible hazards (and vulnerabilities) interactions as well. Due to their complex and challenging modelling, such interactions are usually neglected, and the analysis of risks derived from different sources are commonly performed through independent analysis. However, often the assessment procedures adopted for the analysis as well as the metrics used to express various risks are different, making results of single risk analyses hardly comparable. To overcome this issue, an approach that allows for comparing and ranking risks is presented in this study. The approach is demonstrated through an application for an Italian region. Earthquakes and floods are the investigated hazards. First, in order to select the case study area, the municipalities within the Veneto region where both risks could be highest are identified by adopting an index-based approach. Then, the harmonization of seismic and flood risk assessment procedure is performed. Sub-municipal areas are selected as scale of analysis and direct economic losses are chosen as common impact metrics. The results of the single risk analyses are compared using risk curves as standardization tool. The EAL (expected annual losses) are estimated through risk curves and the ratios between EAL due to floods and earthquakes are mapped, showing in which area risk is significantly higher than the other.

Challenges in Assessing and Managing Multi-Hazard Risks: A European Stakeholders' Perspective

“…Further examples of recent development are the new open-source tool for characterising the spatiotemporal occurrence of multi-hazards proposed by Claassen et al, (2023) and the reclassification of historical datasets from EM-DAT from single to multi-hazards by Lee et al (2024) , which could both bring much-needed clarity to the types of hazard interrelationships relevant to a certain geography. Moreover, there is a growing literature on various aspects of multi-hazard risk assessments, such as applications of different methodologies in specific geographical contexts (e.g., Tocchi et al, 2023, Mladineo et al, 2022, characterisation of vulnerability and associated dynamics in multi-hazard scenarios (Drakes and Tate, 2022;Albulescu and Armas, 2024), and enhanced understanding of multi-hazard impacts (Gentile et al, 2022). Multi-hazard thinking is also strongly featured in the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change (European Commission, 2023b), where scientists work directly with up to 100 regions in Europe, supporting their risk assessments and adaptation planning.…”

Integrating multi-hazard, socio-physical information in a holistic index for decision making on disaster risk reduction

“…Incorporating social vulnerability information in the RI metric further increases its potential utility, e.g., for identifying regions most in need of postdisaster financial assistance. However, the insights provided by RI should be supplemented with more detailed risk assessments that incorporate high-resolution impact calculations (e.g., [63] - [64]) in identified hotspots to more accurately identify appropriate DRR preparedness actions.…”

Evaluating the Efficacy of Low Impact Development Strategies: A Hydrologic-Economic Model to Mitigate Urban Flood Risk

“…Flood vulnerability refers to the physical, social, economic, and environmental factors that increase a community's susceptibility to its impacts. Assessing the vulnerability of communities and infrastructure when floods happen is crucial to understand potential damage and destruction (Karamouz et al, 2016;Baky et al, 2020;Tocchi et al, 2023).…”