Abstract:Protecting infrastructures against natural hazards is a pressing national and international problem. Given the current budgetary climate, the ability to determine the best mitigation strategies with highly constrained budgets is essential. This papers describes a set of computationally efficient techniques to determine optimal infrastructure investment strategies, given multiple user objectives, that are consistent with an underlying earthquake hazard. These techniques include: optimization methods for develop… Show more
“…Brown, Jones, Nozick, and Xu This research is also related to the extensive literature on attacker-defender models. Conceptually, our model is similar to models suggested by Romero et al (2012) and Brown et al (2013) among others. Our model is similarly focused on investment planning to thwart attacks, however, our model of intruder behavior focuses on the probability of interruption whereas these models focus on satisfying demands for services.…”
Section: Introductionsupporting
confidence: 77%
“…A related variable-rate mutation strategy employed in Brown et al (2013) is used to counter the tendency for crossover to produce homogenous populations as described in Sait (1999). Mutations are based on the level of consistency amongst security investment strategies across the population of solutions.…”
The performance of a multi-layered security system, such as those protecting high-value facilities or critical infrastructures, is characterized using several different attributes including detection and interruption probabilities, costs, and false/nuisance alarm rates. The multitude of technology options, alternative locations and configurations for those technologies, threats to the system, and resource considerations that must be weighed make exhaustive evaluation of all possible architectures extremely difficult. This paper presents an optimization model and a computationally efficient solution procedure to identify an estimated frontier of system configuration options which represent the best design choices for the user when there is uncertainty in the response time of the security force, once an intrusion has been detected. A representative example is described.
“…Brown, Jones, Nozick, and Xu This research is also related to the extensive literature on attacker-defender models. Conceptually, our model is similar to models suggested by Romero et al (2012) and Brown et al (2013) among others. Our model is similarly focused on investment planning to thwart attacks, however, our model of intruder behavior focuses on the probability of interruption whereas these models focus on satisfying demands for services.…”
Section: Introductionsupporting
confidence: 77%
“…A related variable-rate mutation strategy employed in Brown et al (2013) is used to counter the tendency for crossover to produce homogenous populations as described in Sait (1999). Mutations are based on the level of consistency amongst security investment strategies across the population of solutions.…”
The performance of a multi-layered security system, such as those protecting high-value facilities or critical infrastructures, is characterized using several different attributes including detection and interruption probabilities, costs, and false/nuisance alarm rates. The multitude of technology options, alternative locations and configurations for those technologies, threats to the system, and resource considerations that must be weighed make exhaustive evaluation of all possible architectures extremely difficult. This paper presents an optimization model and a computationally efficient solution procedure to identify an estimated frontier of system configuration options which represent the best design choices for the user when there is uncertainty in the response time of the security force, once an intrusion has been detected. A representative example is described.
“…The hazards in this region include the NMSZ seismic threat to the roadway bridges and an act of terrorism against the hospitals. This optimization is an extension of the multi-objective, 2-stage stochastic problem described in Brown, et al (2013). In that paper, there were two interdependent infrastructures (the Memphis roadway network with bridges and the hospital system), but only a single hazard (seismic).…”
Section: Case Studymentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For the seismic hazard, we use the approach as described in Brown, et al (2013), which involves a single run of the optimization to determine the Pareto points that consider the total travel time, hospital connectivity, and seismic portion of the cost. For the terrorist hazard, we can execute a separate optimization that determines Pareto points for terrorism mitigation costs and terrorism hospital connectivity objectives.…”
Section: Solution Proceduresmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For the seismic hazard, we use the approach as described in Brown, et al (2013), which involves conducting a single run of the optimization to determine the Pareto points that depend on the total travel time, hospital connectivity, and the seismic portion of the cost. The high-level solution procedure can be summarized in the following points and Figure 4.…”
Currently, much of protection planning is conducted separately for each infrastructure and hazard. Limited funding requires a balance of expenditures between terrorism and natural hazards based on potential impacts. This report documents the results of a Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) project that created a modeling framework for investment planning in interdependent infrastructures focused on multiple hazards, including terrorism. To develop this framework, three modeling elements were integrated: natural hazards, terrorism, and interdependent infrastructures. For natural hazards, a methodology was created for specifying events consistent with regional hazards. For terrorism, we modeled the terrorist's actions based on assumptions regarding their knowledge, goals, and target identification strategy. For infrastructures, we focused on predicting post-event performance due to specific terrorist attacks and natural hazard events, tempered by appropriate infrastructure investments. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with various examples, including protection of electric power, roadway, and hospital networks.
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