Multi-Objective Optimal Allocation of River Basin Water Resources under Full Probability Scenarios Considering Wet–Dry Encounters: A Case Study of Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Wet–dry encounters between basins and regions have an important impact on the allocation of water resources. This study proposes a multi-objective allocation model for basin water resources under full probability scenarios considering wet–dry encounters (FPS-MOWAM) to solve the problem of basin water resource allocation. In the FPS-MOWAM model, the sub-regions were merged by precipitation correlation analysis. Next, the joint probability distribution of basin runoff and region precipitation was constructed using copula functions. The possible wet–dry encounter scenarios and their probabilities were then acquired. Finally, the multi-objective allocation model of water resources was constructed using the full probability scenario for wet–dry encounters in each region. The FPS-MOWAM is calculated by the NSGA-II algorithm and the optimal water resource allocation scheme was selected using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Using the Yellow River Basin as an example, the following conclusions were obtained: (1) the Yellow River Basin can be divided into four sub-regions based on precipitation correlations: Qh-Sc (Qinghai, Sichuan), Sg-Nx-Nmg (Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia), Sxq-Sxj (Shaanxi, Shanxi), and Hn-Sd (Henan, Shandong), (2) the inconsistencies in synchronous–asynchronous encounter probabilities in the Yellow River Basin were significant (the asynchronous probabilities were 0.763), whereas the asynchronous probabilities among the four regions were 0.632, 0.932, and 0.763 under the high, medium, and low flow conditions in the Yellow River Basin respectively, and (3) the allocation of water resources tends to increase with time, allocating the most during dry years. In 2035, the expected economic benefits are between 11,982.7 billion CNY and 12,499.6 billion CNY, while the expected water shortage rate is between 2.02% and 3.43%. In 2050, the expected economic benefits are between 21,291.4 billion CNY and 21,781.3 billion CNY, while the expected water shortage rate is between 1.28% and 6.05%.

Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Considering Virtual Water Trade: A Case Study of the Yellow River

“…However, the virtual water trade volumes in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (upper reaches of the basin) were smaller, at 1.26, 2.19, and 2.05 billion m 3 , respectively. In addition to the inter-regional distance, regional natural geographical endowment, regional socio-economic development level, and inter-regional trade links are important factors affecting the virtual water trade volume 5 . Second, the inter-provincial trade has greatly reshaped water use patterns in the Yellow River Basin.…”

“…This basis for the allocation, utilization, and protection of Yellow River water resources was implemented to coordinate the water needs of nine provinces along the Yellow River for 35 years. This scheme protects socio-economic development and residential livelihood in these coastal regions while maintaining a healthy basin ecosystem 5 .…”

Optimal water resource allocation considering virtual water trade in the Yellow River Basin

“…This basis for the allocation, utilization, and protection of Yellow River water resources was implemented to coordinate the water needs of nine provinces along the Yellow River for 35 years. This scheme protects socio-economic development and residential livelihood in these coastal regions while maintaining a healthy basin ecosystem 14 .…”

Allocation of water resources in the lower Yellow river based on ecological footprint

“…The Yellow River is China's second largest river, and water resource of the Yellow River basin is decreasing (Zhang et al, 2009). Since the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin are more economically efficient in water use and the water demand in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is higher (Guan et al, 2021). Many Chinese scholars have conducted research on the optimization of water resources in the lower Yellow River and the Yellow River Delta (Shao et al, 2009;Yang, 2011;Zhang et al, 2014;Zhang and Oki, 2021).…”