Multi-model comparison of Swiss decarbonization scenarios

Abstract

Collaborating under the Swiss Energy Modeling Platform (SEMP), five modeling teams (employing an energy systems model and four macroeconomic models with a focus on energy) have carried out a multi-model comparison to assess the economic and technological consequences of reaching emission reduction targets for 2050 in the context of Switzerland. We consider different designs of carbon taxes to compare their economic cost: economy-wide or sector-specific carbon taxes with or without an emission trading system (ETS) in place. All models find that the climate targets can be reached at modest welfare reductions of 0.15–0.37% (if targeting 1.5 tonnes of CO 2 per capita) or 0.24–0.48% (if targeting 1.0 tonnes per capita) compared to a business-as-usual scenario in which the emission level of 1.5 tonnes per capita is exceeded by 83–137%. In contradiction to the additional target of reducing Swiss electricity use, most models find it cost-effective to replace some of the energy supplied by fossil fuels by electricity and thus do not recommend a decrease in electricity use.Most models find that a uniform carbon tax is the most efficient instrument to achieve the emission reduction targets. Those models with a detailed representation of pre-existing mineral oil taxes find that in early periods of climate policy, taxing emission from transport fuels at lower rates than other emissions may be cost-efficient. This effect vanishes as the stringency of targets and thus CO 2 taxes increase over time.

Growth impacts of Swiss steering-based climate policies

“…The results from the other models are in the ranges of 0.16-0.36% and 0.24-0.48% for the 1.5 tCO 2 per capita and the 1.0 tCO 2 p.c. targets, respectively (Landis et al, 2019). The other models in the SEMP study include two recursive-dynamic models and one static CGE.…”

“…The Federal Council defined a long-term objective of reducing GHG emissions in 2050 by 70-80% relative to 1990 levels (equivalent to 1-2 tCO 2e per capita). In the SEMP modeling comparison (Landis et al, 2019), we analyze two alternative CO 2 -only targets for 2050 that are consistent with the goals of reducing GHG emissions to 1.5 tCO 2e and 1.0 tCO 2e per capita. Using the SEMP harmonized assumption of population (see Table 2), these two targets correspond to a decrease in CO 2 emissions of 72% and 80% relative to 1990 levels (12.9 MtCO 2 and 8 MtCO 2 ), respectively 5 .…”

“…This paper complements these analyses by using a numerical (2019) 155:9 Page 3 of 13 model with endogenous growth that represents the positive impacts from climate policies on the economy driven by the endogenously determined R&D. Different studies using numerical models have evaluated the realization of different carbon reduction goals in Switzerland, see for instance Marcucci and Turton (2012); Sceia et al (2012); Böhringer and Müller (2014); Kannan and Turton (2016); Bretschger and Zhang (2017b); Karydas and Zhang (2017); Landis et al (2018). This paper is part of the Special Issue of SEMP (Landis et al 2019). The SEMP exercise aims at giving coherent and complementary answers to the options for reaching Switzerland's climate policy targets for 2050, by running and comparing several models that use synchronized assumptions and policy scenarios.…”

Cost distribution and equity of climate policy in Switzerland

“…Note: Scenario drivers were given by the Swiss Energy Modelling Platform (SEMP). For sources of scenarios see Landis, Marcucci, et al (2018)…”

Growth Impacts of Swiss Steering Based Climate Policies

“…This paper complements these analyses by using a numerical model with endogenous growth that represents the positive impacts from climate policies on the economy driven by the endogenously determined R&D. Different studies using numerical models have evaluated the realization of different carbon reduction goals in Switzerland, see for instance Marcucci and Turton (2012); Sceia et al (2012); Böhringer and Müller (2014); Kannan and Turton (2016); Bretschger and Zhang (2017b); Karydas and Zhang (2017); Landis et al (2018). This paper is part of the Special Issue of SEMP (Landis et al 2019). The SEMP exercise aims at giving coherent and complementary answers to the options for reaching Switzerland's climate policy targets for 2050, by running and comparing several models that use synchronized assumptions and policy scenarios.…”