Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk

Ide, Tobias; Brzoska, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Schleußner, Carl-Friedrich

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102063

Cited by 104 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Second, however, our analysis makes clear that such a link is strongly conditional on the presence of a number of context factors, thus lining up with a number of recent studies drawing similar conclusions (e.g. De Juan, 2015; Ide et al, 2020; Schleussner et al, 2016; von Uexkull et al, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 65%

“…Besides, Ide (2015) shows that renewable resource scarcity, often a consequence of hydro-meteorological hazards, facilitates violent conflict escalation under conditions of negative othering, relatively equal power balances between the groups in conflict, and acute political change. Similar conditional links are also highlighted by Feitelson & Tubi (2017), Ide et al (2020) and Schleussner et al (2016). Most often these studies provide stronger and more robust results for low-intensity violence causing only a small number of fatalities (when compared to full-blown civil wars).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 53%

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Pathways to water conflict during drought in the MENA region

Ide

Lopez

Fröhlich

et al. 2020

Journal of Peace Research

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As hydro-meteorological hazards are predicted to become more frequent and intense in the future, scholars and policymakers are increasingly concerned about their security implications, especially in the context of ongoing climate change. Our study contributes to this debate by analysing the pathways to water-related conflict onset under drought conditions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1996 and 2009. It is also the first such analysis that focuses on small-scale conflicts involving little or no physical violence, such as protests or demonstrations. These nonviolent conflicts are politically relevant, yet understudied in the literature on climate change and conflict, environmental security, and political instability. We employ the method of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to integrate quantitative and qualitative data at various scales (national, regional, local) for a sample of 34 cases (17 of which experienced conflict onset). Our findings show that pre-existing cleavages and either autocratic political systems or cuts of the public water supply are relevant predictors of nonviolent, water-related conflict onset during droughts. Grievances deeply embedded into socio-economic structures in combination with a triggering event like a drought or water cuts are hence driving such water-related conflicts, especially in the absence of proper political institutions. We thus argue that drought–conflict links are highly context-dependent even for nonviolent, local conflicts, hence challenging determinist narratives that claim direct interlinkages between climate change, hydro-meteorological disasters and conflict.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 65%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 53%

Pathways to water conflict during drought in the MENA region

Ide

Lopez

Fröhlich

et al. 2020

Journal of Peace Research

Self Cite

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“…The COVID-19 pandemic has further exposed the inequality in vulnerability to shocks among communities that lack the financial resources and essentials for a minimum standard of living, feeding off existing inequalities and making them worse (Drefahl et al 2020 ; Stiglitz 2020 ). There is significant concern that climate-driven events exacerbate conflict because they affect economic insecurity which, in itself, has been shown to be a major cause of violent conflict and unrest (Mach et al 2019 ; Ide et al 2020 ).…”

Section: Inequality and Global Sustainabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere

Folke

Polasky

Rockström

et al. 2021

Ambio

374

230

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The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality—of rising system-wide turbulence—calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.

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“…Instead, scholarship has centered on the extent to which, and how, disasters related to climate conditions are causally linked to violent conflict (Adger et al 2014 ; Hsiang et al 2013 ; Raleigh and Kniverton 2012 ; Salehyan 2014 ). Findings have been mixed owing to different empirical, temporal and spatial sites of study, definitions of conflict, and means of analysis (Ide et al 2020 ; Peters et al 2020 ; Salehyan 2014 ). Existing research typically defines the hazard event (primarily a high-impact, sudden-onset event) as an independent factor, and tends to focus on the post-disaster space as a site for violent or peaceful action.…”

Section: Disaster Risk Reduction and Peacebuildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Terra incognita: the contribution of disaster risk reduction in unpacking the sustainability–peace nexus

Peters

2021

Sustain Sci

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The pursuit of sustainable development in the context of global environmental change requires enhanced capability to deal with changing hazard profiles, across scales and geographies. Humans attempt to manage human and natural systems interactions in ways that minimize disaster risks, and the political expression of this ambition is the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (‘Sendai Framework’). These efforts lay the foundation for sustainable development, as since the onset of the Sendai Framework, the policy objective of disaster risk reduction has been explicitly linked to global progress on the Sustainable Development Goals. Separately, peace is a focal point of SDG 16, and widely regarded as foundational to attainment of all SDGs. Meanwhile in academic and policy arenas throughout the 2000s, evidence attests of the amplifying negative impact of climate-related disaster events on increasing violent conflict. What remains underexplored are questions of whether and how effective management of human and natural systems interaction, through disaster risk reduction, can contribute towards conditions of peace through peacebuilding. This paper explores how delivery of the Sendai Framework is necessary for sustainability, and potentially also for peace. In the context of the sustainability–peace nexus, the contribution of disaster risk reduction is terra incognita. This paper aims to deepen understanding of those under-researched tripartite links.

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Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk

Cited by 104 publications

References 64 publications

Pathways to water conflict during drought in the MENA region

Pathways to water conflict during drought in the MENA region

Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere

Terra incognita: the contribution of disaster risk reduction in unpacking the sustainability–peace nexus

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