Multi-hazard susceptibility and exposure assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Rusk, Jack; Maharjan, Amina; Tiwari, Prakash C.; Chen, Tzu-Hsin Karen; Shneiderman, Sara; Turin, Mark; Seto, Karen C.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150039

Cited by 60 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Each year, more than 700 natural hazards occur around the world, causing 40% of global economic and social damage (Bordbar et al, 2022; Souissi et al, 2020) and approximately 45,000—or 0.1%—of global deaths (Saleem Ashraf et al, 2017). According to World Bank data, the number and frequency of natural hazards have increased over the last two decades due to climate change and urban growth (Javidan et al, 2021; Pourghasemi et al, 2020; Rusk et al, 2022). Of all natural hazards, flooding and landslides are two of the most dangerous.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi‐hazard assessment using machine learning and remote sensing in the North Central region of Vietnam

Nguyen

Dang

Bui

et al. 2023

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Natural hazards constitute a diverse category and are unevenly distributed in time and space. This hinders predictive efforts, leading to significant impacts on human life and economies. Multi‐hazard prediction is vital for any natural hazard risk management plan. The main objective of this study was the development of a multi‐hazard susceptibility mapping framework, by combining two natural hazards—flooding and landslides—in the North Central region of Vietnam. This was accomplished using support vector machines, random forest, and AdaBoost. The input data consisted of 4591 flood points, 1315 landslide points, and 13 conditioning factors, split into training (70%), and testing (30%) datasets. The accuracy of the models' predictions was evaluated using the statistical indices root mean square error, area under curve (AUC), mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination. All proposed models were good at predicting multi‐hazard susceptibility, with AUC values over 0.95. Among them, the AUC value for the support vector machine model was 0.98 and 0.99 for landslide and flood, respectively. For the random forest model, these values were 0.98 and 0.98, and for AdaBoost, they were 0.99 and 0.99. The multi‐hazard maps were built by combining the landslide and flood susceptibility maps. The results showed that approximately 60% of the study area was affected by landslides, 30% by flood, and 8% by both hazards. These results illustrate how North Central is one of the regions of Vietnam that is most severely affected by natural hazards, particularly flooding, and landslides. The proposed models adapt to evaluate multi‐hazard susceptibility at different scales, although expert intervention is also required, to optimize the algorithms. Multi‐hazard maps can provide a valuable point of reference for decision makers in sustainable land‐use planning and infrastructure development in regions faced with multiple hazards, and to prevent and reduce more effectively the frequency of floods and landslides and their damage to human life and property.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi‐hazard assessment using machine learning and remote sensing in the North Central region of Vietnam

Nguyen

Dang

Bui

et al. 2023

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“…Disasters have increased tenfold across the globe since the 1970s (Guha-Sapir et al 2011, Laframboise & Loko 2012, Panwar & Sen 2019, Rusk et al 2022 Mountainous and lowland areas in Nepal have experienced severe disasters caused by earthquakes, floods due to extreme rainfall , windstorms, landslides, glacier lake outburst flood, and other events. These events have increased and are associated with increasing warming and extreme precipitation (Javadinejad et al 2019, Rieger 2021, Rusk et al 2022. With the expansion of human settlements, urbanization, and development infrastructure, exposure to multiple hazards as well as disaster risks have been amplified (Aksha et al 2020, Van Westen 2013.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Approach to multi-disaster risk assessment and policy recommendation for disaster resilient urban development: A study of Birgunj–Simara Corridor

Ghimire

2023

Geog. J. Nepal

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This study identified multiple nature of disasters in Tarai in general and Birgunj - Simara Urban Corridor, one of the hotspots of urbanization in Nepal in particular. Using geospatial technology, secondary sources of information, and stakeholder’s consultations, this study evaluated floods, earthquakes, windstorms, and fire impacts, identified factors contributing to vulnerability, and solutions for increasing resilience. Although rivers have limited floodplains, floods have been increased because of floodplain encroachment, improper drainage, land use changes in upper catchment, and climate change. Although the earthquake could have a high impact, the seismicity is low compared to the national context. During pre- and monsoon seasons, windstorms have a high impact over a limited area and are hard to predict. Fires are not widespread in the settlements but common during hot, dry months due to compact rural settlements, nonresilient house designs, and inadequate safety measures. Besides, lack of adaptation capacity as a result of poor awareness, widespread poverty, and poor disaster response have contributed to a high vulnerability to multihazards. Mitigation actions identified include risk-sensitive land use planning, flood control and hydraulic structure design, efficient urban drainage, waste management, resilient housing, and disaster safety plans. Local communities should be involved in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness, and response measures.

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“…The Himalaya is always in a process of geomorphological changes with active geology and dynamic geography (Panday, 1984;Rusk et al, 2022;Wymann Von Dach et al, 2017). Studies, however, suggest that the recent anthropogenic interventions in the Himalaya driven by rapid but haphazard urbanisation and uncontrolled constructional activities (Gurung, 2021;Kargel et al, 2016;Rimal et al, 2020) have overlooked "mountain specificities" i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The fragile geophysical conditions coupled with haphazardly growing urbanisation and rampant construction activities in mountain geography have triggered multi-hazards 3 (e.g., landslide, flood) and simultaneously elevated exposure of the Himalayan dwellers to the risk of disasters (Tiwari et al, 2018;Walker, 2011;Wester et al, 2019;Poudel et al, 2021;Rusk et al, 2022) which are likely to intensify in the future (Mesta et al, 2022;Wester et al, 2019). In the Nepal Himalaya, an average of 500 natural and non-natural hazards occur annually which on an average kill 900 and affect around 6,40,000 people every year (NPC, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urbanisation and Disaster Risks in the Himalaya

Poudel¹,

Shrestha²,

Khatri³

et al. 2022

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Haphazard urban expansion and poorly planned infrastructure development have increased and intensified disaster risks in the geologically fragile Himalaya. Against this backdrop, consolidating and interpreting the findings from four articles included in this special issue on “urbanisation and disaster risk in the Himalaya”, this paper analyses the interrelation between urbanisation and disaster risk in rapidly urbanising areas of Nepal Himalaya. The key findings that we pull together from the papers are: (1) large-scale construction activities, including the real estate boom in peri-urban Nepal, increasingly delink traditional communities from their land and culture; (2) disconnected policies and contradicting implementation in the informal to formal transitions have sustained informality and deepened risk in urban Nepal; (3) institutional inertia sustains poor coordination between stakeholders in relation to knowledge sharing, technology and resources which hinder proactive disaster management at the community level; and (4) operational and knowledge gaps emerge from failures to delineate authority, responsibility and accountability between concerned institutions, and weak institutional capacity between agencies, impeding the adoption of early warning and action system in Nepal. Based on these findings, we conclude that while the political restructuring and decentralisation of the local governments have provided authorities with the legitimacy to devise disaster management policies, enhancing overall institutional capability in terms of access to and mobilisation of knowledge, technologies and resources is needed to reduce disaster risks in the Himalaya.

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Multi-hazard susceptibility and exposure assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Cited by 60 publications

References 66 publications

Multi‐hazard assessment using machine learning and remote sensing in the North Central region of Vietnam

Multi‐hazard assessment using machine learning and remote sensing in the North Central region of Vietnam

Approach to multi-disaster risk assessment and policy recommendation for disaster resilient urban development: A study of Birgunj–Simara Corridor

Urbanisation and Disaster Risks in the Himalaya

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