Multi-generation diffusion of technology

Abstract

In the era of demand-driven technology, the study of diffusion processes of high-technology products becomes crucial. The accelerated technological advancements and intergeneration substitutions illustrate the market of these innovations. In the past, attempts have been made to forecast the market growth of product generations meticulously. These studies have considered the diffusion parameters to be static; however, they are implausible to remain constant throughout the the product lifecycle and may experience considerable changes.To understand this phenomenon, the proposed diffusion model deals with the change-point technique in the multi-generation framework. Change-point is defined as a time instant where the growth rate in the diffusion process experiences a change due to varying market environment in which an innovation is placed. The main aim of the reseach is to develop an approach for analyzing the substitution effect among product generations when there exists change-points. Moreover, to demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the constructed model, it is fitted to the sales data of DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) industry.

Technology diffusion model with change in adoption rate and repeat purchases: a case of consumer balking

“…The time instance wherein the statistical properties of a process alter is called changepoint. In the existing literature, few diffusion models have been proposed to reflect the notion of change-point in Bass mathematical framework (Kapur et al 2007;Singh et al 2012;Kapur et al 2017Kapur et al , 2019Panwar et al 2019). Also, the majority of work on innovation diffusion considered only first-time adopters in their modeling framework.…”

“…Correspondingly, innovation diffusion modeling, a study on analyzing the dissemination of new products has attracted significant attention of forecaster and policymakers from past many decades. The term innovation is referred to the advancement of the new concept, product, or process by making modifications to the existing product or service and that generates revenue for the firm (Kapur et al 2017). These innovations are disseminated among the target market through the diffusion process (Panwar et al 2020a).…”

Modeling two-dimensional technology diffusion process under dynamic adoption rate

“…Therefore, the diffusion parameters will undergo discontinuity. Hence, to include this effect, recently few studies have been carried out that integrated the concept of change-point in the diffusion process (Kapur et al , 2007; Singh et al , 2012; Kapur et al , 2012; Kapur et al , 2017; Panwar et al , 2019). Change-point refers to the time-point wherein the rate of adoption per remaining number of buyers is modified.…”