Multi-Factor Simulation Modeling in the Short-and Long-Term Prognosis of Measles Incidence

Abstract

The widespread increase in morbidity and the registration of major measles outbreaks in recent years require the development of new technologies to control the infection. Technologies should be based on the prognosis of morbidity. The aim of the study was to predict the development of the situation in the near and long term in order to determine the adequate technologies of infection control in the metropolis at the stage of its elimination on the basis of a mathematical simulation of the epidemic process of measles. Materials and methods. A simulation model to forecast the incidence of measles was developed using special software AnyLogic Professional 7.0. The model included the main determinants of the epidemic process, established by the results of their own research and literature data. The results of the epidemic process modeling were uploaded to the database. Further work was carried out in the database management system Microsoft SQL Server Management Studio. Analysis and graphical processing of the results are performed using comprehensive software for business intelligence Power BI. Results. It is established that at low (50-60%) coverage of vaccinations of children in the decreed ages and the population as a whole, the probability of measles outbreaks is high both in the short and long term. The increase in vaccination coverage to 90-95% leads to an increase in the period of epidemic well-being, but the likelihood of an outbreak remains. With revaccination every 10 years, at least 60% of the population remains stable for 30 years and the spread of infection does not occur. With the coverage of revaccinating vaccinations 80% of the population-the epidemiological situation remains stable for 50 years. Conclusion. The simulation model of measles morbidity forecast for the near and long term, built with the main determinants of the epidemic process, allows us to predict the development of the epidemic situation in the territory of a large industrial city. Also, the model allows to determine the priority areas for the elimination of measles infection, namely: strict control of the timeliness and completeness of vaccination coverage of children in the decreed age (at least 95%) and maintaining a high immune layer of the population as a whole, which can be provided during the planned revaccination against measles every 10 years.