Multi-agent simulations to explore rules for rural credit in a highland farming community of Northern Thailand

Abstract

Multi-agent systems (MAS) open new modelling and analysis perspectives in ecological and social sciences. An original characteristic of the Companion Modelling (ComMod) approach adopted in this case study is the co-construction and use of a MAS model with and for local stakeholders such as farmers and local administrators. Alternating iteratively field and modelling activities, this approach facilitates collective learning among local stakeholders and between them and the researchers. Combining the use of MAS models with Role-Playing Games (RPG), the described experiment aimed to facilitate collective decision-making in a socially heterogeneous community of small farmers in mountainous northern Thailand about the local rules for the allocation of rural credit to allow a more equitable and extensive process of expansion of non-erosive perennial crops in a watershed prone to erosion. This paper presents the MAS model and the results of a series of simulations exploring the ecological, social and economic effects of various rules for formal and informal credit suggested by the villagers-participants. Six scenarios considered as pertinent to further explore the participants' suggestions were defined based on different combinations among the following three variables: (i) Duration for the reimbursement of loans, (ii) Mode of allocation of formal credit among three different types of farms, (iii) Configuration of networks of acquaintances for access to informal credit. Drawing on this case study, we first elaborate on the potential of bottom-up models such as MAS to analyze the functioning of agricultural systems, in particular farm differentiation and rural credit dynamics. We highlight the ability of MAS to deal with interactions between social and ecological dynamics and to take into account social interactions, in particular the concept of social capital which is a determining factor when dealing with sustainability issues. The second question addressed in this paper deals with the potential and limits of MAS models to support a bottom-up (or participatory) modelling approach. This experiment suggests that the usefulness of models relies much more on the modelling process than on the model itself, because a model is usually useless if it is misunderstood by its potential users, or if it does not respond to their current preoccupations. The intuitive representation of real systems provided by MAS and their high flexibility are the two underlined characteristics favouring their appropriation by local stakeholders.

Relevancy and role of whole-farm models in supporting smallholder farmers in planning their agricultural season

“…The question which must be addressed is how does the design of a model influence this perception? To avoid a "black box" effect, the model should be transparent and produce outputs that make sense to the farmer (Rivington et al, 2007;Barnaud et al, 2008). An understanding of the kind of learning derived through the use of the model, both for farmers and the researcher or advisor working with them, also is critical (Matthews et al, 2011).…”

Social credit: a comprehensive literature review

“…Additionally, various experimental simulation technologies, including multi-agent systems, system dynamics, and game theory have been applied to credit systems simulation to explore the creation and evolution mechanisms of credit. For example, Barnaud et al 2008 employed multiagent system models with role-playing games (RPG) to simulate rural credit in a highland farming community of Northern Thailand. The authors found that an informal credit system between friends reduced credit fraud.…”

“…The research approaches show that existing studies can be categorized according to two main schools of thought -traditional and emerging credit theories. While the former investigates credit theory based on various economics theories, e.g., institutional economics, information economics, and game theory (Stiglitz and Weiss 1981;Jarrow and Xu 2010;Brown and Zehnder 2010), the emerging studies utilize various current experimental techniques for complex systems, such as multi-agent-based models, system dynamics, and other simulation methods (Jankowitsch et al 2007;Barnaud et al 2008).…”

Colonization of tree species along an interior-exterior gradient across the forest edge in a tropical montane forest, northwest Thailand

“…Most mountainous areas of nor ther n Thailand covered by lower montane forest (Bunavejchewin et al 2011), long history of shifting cultivation by local and hilltribe people has also caused gradual fragmentation of PFs (Buergin 2003, Barnaud et al 2008, Fukushima et al 2008) and increases forest edge especially, in protected area such as wildlife sanctuary and national park (Royal Forest Department 2010). Local people cultivated rice, maize, cabbages, and fruit crops after slash-and-burn clearing of forest areas, though some of them have been abandoned.…”