Moving to ‘Bei–Shang–Guang’? Internal migration, local hukou barriers and labour market outcomes among college graduates in China

Abstract

Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, as the major metropolitan areas in China, offer good opportunities for economic and social mobility for in-migrants. As such, these four locations have become the primary employment destinations for recent college graduates. Meanwhile, these cities have the most stringent hukou policies nationwide, which play a key role in the urban labour market segmentation between local residents and in-migrants. Using three waves of data from a nationally representative survey, the China College Student Survey (2010, 2013, and 2015), this paper, for the first time, examined whether Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have emerged as an 'upward social class escalator region' for young adults in China. After accounting for observed demographic and human capital characteristics and migrant selectivity, migrating into Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen has been found to be positively associated with earnings attainment, and the economic benefit from relocation is greater than that experienced by migrants elsewhere in the system. However, in-migrants to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have fewer opportunities to enter government organisations and public enterprises. These results cast doubt on the potential for Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen to act as escalators for individuals wishing to achieve all-around upwards social mobility in China's urban labour market.The local hukou barrier may still be a salient factor in shaping migrants' labour market outcomes in China. This study contributes to existing knowledge on escalator theory by providing empirical evidence from an emerging market country, China. More importantly, it shed light on the role of location (such as large urban centres) in the complicated relationship between social mobility and migration.

Returning home for a better job? Return migration, family background, and labor market outcomes among recent college graduates in China

“…First, this study lends support to previous findings in the literature on China's hukou system and its impact on the labor market outcomes (Cheng et al, 2013; Zhang and Wu, 2017). The results reveal that, after controlling for the effect of demographic characteristics, human capital accumulation in college, and family background, graduates moving back to their places of hukou registration for work were more likely to get a placement in a government organization or public enterprises, relative to nonreturn migrants.…”

“…In analyses, universities were divided into two categories (Yang and Chen 2016): national keypoint universities, that is, those identified as "Project 211" institutions; 1 and other institutions, "non-keypoint universities". Given the special status of the four first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, in the national economy (Zhao, 2023), a dummy variable of whether starting one's career in a first-tier city was also included. A dummy variable of survey year was controlled for across models.…”

Does birthplace affect intergenerational social mobility of migrants in urban escalators? Evidence from China

“…In the United Kingdom, Bell et al (2023) determined the geography of intergenerational mobility in England and Wales and found that area-level differences in upward occupational mobility were highly persistent over time, with London standing out as the most upward occupational mobility area. In China, locals born in first-tier cities are at an advantage in terms of job opportunities in governmental institutions compared with migrants born in other areas (Zhao, 2023). Furthermore, the position of their place of origin in the urban hierarchy affects migrants' housing outcomes at their destination (Cui et al, 2020).…”

“…Although there are no generally accepted criteria for the second-tier cities and other tiers (Zhao, 2023), the second-tier cities recognized by the public are mostly provincial capital cities (e.g., Wuhan) or subprovincial cities (e.g., Qingdao) (Jin et al, 2022). In this paper, we further categorized the rest of the 32 centrally-administered cities, provincial capitals, and deputy-province-level cities as second-tier cities.…”

Spatial spillover effects of fiscal expenditure and economic opportunity on internal migration in Taiwan

“…There is a wide range of studies about internal migration exploring different influential factors. Some studies done in Asia include the following: Zhao’s (2023) study, which posits that young people migrating to major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in China show a positive correlation with income realization; the economic benefits obtained by young people are greater compared to migrating to other places within the country. This study also validated the “escalator region hypothesis” 1 first proposed by Fielding (1992).…”