Moving into Protected Areas? Setting Conservation Priorities for Romanian Reptiles and Amphibians at Risk from Climate Change

Abstract

Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario) and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s), and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas), but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1) building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2) facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside protected areas, specifically in traditionally-managed landscapes and abandoned cropland.

Future climate change will severely reduce habitat suitability of the Critically Endangered Chinese giant salamander

“…Adverse effects of climate change on protected areas of amphibians have already been elucidated (e.g. D'Amen et al, ; Lemes, Melo, & Loyola, ; Popescu et al, ). For instance, D'Amen et al () evaluated the efficacy of Italian reserve network for amphibians under future climate change scenarios by SDMs.…”

Challenges and Opportunities for Terrapene carolina carolina Under Different Climate Scenarios

“…Utilizing land surface temperature maps can help identify critical areas of thermal limits for different species and land managers can manage the habitat to increase or decrease temperatures (e.g., manage amount of canopy cover). As with many problems that species face, there will be winners and losers as in Popescu et al (2013) [81], which found that reptiles show mixed responses to climate change across species. Our study suggests that T. c. carolina may benefit from climate change at a landscape scale with increased suitable habitat in the future, assuming that habitat is detectable and accessible, which will be dependent on local scale characteristics.…”

Diversity and distribution of reptiles in Romania

“…The different biogeographic regions overlapping in Romania will face different types and levels of these changes (Popescu et al in press). Climate change may cause a shift in reptile ranges, although the Carpathian Mountains and the Steppic and Black Sea province of Dobrogea will act as a refuge, being considered critical areas for conservation (Araújo et al 2006, Popescu et al in press).…”

“…Climate change may cause a shift in reptile ranges, although the Carpathian Mountains and the Steppic and Black Sea province of Dobrogea will act as a refuge, being considered critical areas for conservation (Araújo et al 2006, Popescu et al in press). To alleviate these threats by conservation activities (e.g., by establishing new protected areas), a key step is predicting the range responses to different climate change scenarios (Franklin 2009, Araújo et al 2011).…”