Moving boundary approach to forecast tight oil production

Velasco, Raul; Panja, Palash; Deo, Milind

doi:10.1002/aic.17012

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Suhag et al (2017) in a study to predict shale oil production using experimental methods and artificial neural networks disclosed that the predicted values of the ANN network show less than 10% error in estimation. Velasco et al (2021) foreseen the US compacted oil production using the moving boundary approach. This approach has been applied to evolve the two regions by gradually reducing the reservoir pressure.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and forecasting United States oil production along with the social cost of carbon: conventional and unconventional oil

Kazemzadeh

Shadmehri

Salari

et al. 2022

IJESM

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Purpose The USA is one of the largest oil producers in the world. For this purpose, the authors model and predict the US conventional and unconventional oil production during the period 2000–2030. Design/methodology/approach In this research, the system dynamics (SD) model has been used. In this model, economic, technical, geopolitical, learning-by-doing and environmental (social costs of carbon) issues are considered. Findings The results of the simulation, after successfully passing the validation test, show that the US unconventional oil production rate under the optimistic scenario (high oil prices) in 2030 is about 12.62 million barrels/day (mb/day), under the medium oil price scenario is about 11.4 mb/day and under the pessimistic scenario (low oil price) is about 10.18 mb/day. The results of US conventional oil production forecasting under these three scenarios (high, medium and low oil prices) show oil production of 4.62, 4.26 and 3.91 mb/day, respectively. Originality/value The contribution of this study is important in several respects: First, by modeling SD that technical, economic, proven reserves and technology factors are considered, this paper models US conventional and unconventional oil production separately. In this modeling, nonlinear relationships and feedback loops are presented to better understand the relationships between variables. Second, given the importance of environmental issues, the modeling of social costs of CO2 emissions per barrel of oil is also presented and considered as a part of oil production costs. Third, conventional and unconventional US oil production by 2030 is forecast separately, the results of this study could help policymakers to develop unconventional oil and plan for energy self-sufficiency.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and forecasting United States oil production along with the social cost of carbon: conventional and unconventional oil

Kazemzadeh

Shadmehri

Salari

et al. 2022

IJESM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…8 At the same time, because of its strong compressibility, gas is conducive to supplementing the reservoir energy; therefore, it is increasingly used in low-permeability and tight reservoirs. 21,22 Currently, CO 2 is the main gas injected in gas flooding. 3,8,11,23,24 In addition to CO 2 flooding, nitrogen flooding is also a good choice.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Gas easily flows and has strong penetration, which has a good viscosity reduction effect in the reservoir . At the same time, because of its strong compressibility, gas is conducive to supplementing the reservoir energy; therefore, it is increasingly used in low-permeability and tight reservoirs. , …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experimental Investigation on the Stability of Oil-Based Nitrogen Foam under Ultrahigh Pressure and Elevated Temperature

Wang

et al. 2022

Energy Fuels

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Nitrogen flooding can effectively develop lowpermeability and tight reservoirs. However, because of the low viscosity and density of nitrogen, gas channeling easily occurs, resulting in low oil recovery. Oil-based nitrogen foam can be used to control gas channeling during nitrogen flooding, but the foam stability directly affects the application effect. In this paper, the performance of the foaming agent was optimized by compounding, and a stable oil-based nitrogen foam was successfully built, with a foam volume exceeding 400 mL and a half-life of liquid drainage exceeding 40 min. The foam stability under an ultrahigh pressure of 60 MPa and an elevated temperature of 80 °C were investigated by an ultrahigh pressure and ultrahigh temperature PVT system for the first time. The influence of base oil viscosity and interfacial tension on foam stability was examined. The experimental results showed that the foam stability improved when the pressure increased and worsened when the temperature rose. The foam stability was the best at 20 °C and 60 MPa, and the half-life of liquid drainage was nearly 4 h. The foam stability was the worst at 80 °C and 0.1 MPa, and the half-life was <1 min. The higher was the base oil viscosity, the better was the foam stability. Although the rise of pressure and temperature reduces the nitrogen−diesel interfacial tension, the interfacial tension is not the dominant factor affecting foam stability at elevated temperatures. This paper has a certain guiding significance for perfecting the stability mechanism of oil-based nitrogen foam under ultrahigh pressure and elevated temperature and better controlling gas channeling during nitrogen flooding in low-permeability and tight reservoirs.

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“… 17 , 18 Therefore, it is of great practical significance and urgent to study the efficient development methods of TSTRs. 19 − 22 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, while encouraging, the development of TSTRs is also facing enormous challenges. Because this is a brand new type of tight oil reservoir, there is no successful development case for reference at present, which makes the oilfield often have great blindness and uncertainty when taking various development measures. , Therefore, it is of great practical significance and urgent to study the efficient development methods of TSTRs. − …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on Influencing Factors of Water Huff-n-Puff Oil Recovery in Matrix-Fracture Systems of the Tight Sedimentary Tuff Reservoirs

Yang

Jin

et al. 2022

ACS Omega

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Tight sedimentary tuff reservoirs (TSTRs) are a new type of tight oil reservoirs, which are mainly developed by water huff-n-puff (WHP). However, there is no quantitative study on the effect of water injection pressure (WIP) and fracture density (FD) on the oil recovery effect of WHP, and the reasons for the low flow-back rate (FR) of the injected water are also not fully explained. In this study, the real cores of TSTRs were used to simulate the seepage state of the matrix-fracture systems of the reservoir, the effects of WIP and FD on the WHP were quantitatively studied, and the reasons for the low FR of the injected water were comprehensively analyzed. The result shows that in five cycles of WHP, the recovery factor (RF) of the core only increases from 8.72 to 10.91% with the WIP increasing from 25 to 30 MPa. However, when the WIP is 40 MPa (rock breakdown pressure), the RF of the core reaches 16.47%, indicating that overfracture-pressure water injection has an obvious improvement effect on the oil recovery effect of WHP in TSTRs. Increasing the FD can also significantly improve the RF and oil recovery efficiency (ORE) of WHP in TSTRs. When the FD of the core increases from 0.34 to 0.44 cm –1 , the RF of five cycles of WHP increases by 9.26%, the ORE increases by 8.61%, and the FR of the injected water decreases by 0.56%. The reasons for the low FR of the injected water in WHP in tight oil reservoirs are matrix water locking, fracture water locking, and reservoir nonconstant-volume water locking. The study can provide an important reference for the efficient development of the WHP in TSTRs.

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Moving boundary approach to forecast tight oil production

Cited by 5 publications

References 45 publications

Modeling and forecasting United States oil production along with the social cost of carbon: conventional and unconventional oil

Modeling and forecasting United States oil production along with the social cost of carbon: conventional and unconventional oil

Experimental Investigation on the Stability of Oil-Based Nitrogen Foam under Ultrahigh Pressure and Elevated Temperature

Study on Influencing Factors of Water Huff-n-Puff Oil Recovery in Matrix-Fracture Systems of the Tight Sedimentary Tuff Reservoirs

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