Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Gingerich, Stephen B.; Dongeren, Ap van; Cheriton, Olivia M.; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Quataert, Ellen; Voss, Clifford I.; Field, Donald W.; Annamalai, H.; Piniak, Greg; McCall, Robert

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aap9741

Cited by 334 publications

(272 citation statements)

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“…Considering the value of reefs in shoreline protection (Beck et al ), understanding the balance between the growth and destruction of coral reefs is a major research priority (Perry et al ), particularly through the lens of continuing sea‐level rise (Storlazzi et al ). Florida's subtropical reefs may present a canary in a coal mine scenario because reef building throughout the reef tract ceased ~ 3000 yr ago (Toth et al ) and loss of reef elevation has already been documented over the last century (Yates et al ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Reduction in the quality and estimated value of this essential, natural capital has resulted (Costanza et al 2014;Beck et al 2018) from repeated high-temperature anomalies (Veron et al 2009;Eakin et al 2010), coastal development (Halpern et al 2008), and overextraction of resources (Cinner et al 2016). The loss of reef elevation resulting from coral-reef degradation is a contributor to coastal community vulnerability in the tropics (Yates et al 2017;Storlazzi et al 2018). The physical, three-dimensional structure of coral reefs in the western Atlantic is heavily reliant on a handful of reef-building species, principally Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Improving estimates of coral reef construction and erosion with in situ measurements

Kuffner

Toth

Hudson

et al. 2019

Limnology & Oceanography

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The decline in living coral since the 1970s has conspicuously slowed reef construction on a global scale, but the related process of reef erosion is less visible and not often quantified. Here, we present new data on the constructional and deconstructional sides of the carbonate‐budget equation in the Florida Keys, U.S.A. We documented Orbicella spp. calcification rates at four offshore reefs and quantified decadal‐scale rates of Orbicella‐reef erosion at a mid‐shore patch reef. Using Orbicella coral heads fitted with permanent markers in 1998, we measured reef‐elevation loss at 28 stations over 17.3 yr to estimate a mean erosion rate of −5.5 (± 3.2, SD) mm yr−1. This loss equates to an erosion rate of −8.2 (± 4.8, SD) kg m−2 yr−1 on dead Orbicella colonies, or −6.6 kg m−2 yr−1 when adjusted reef‐wide. Calculating net carbonate production using a census‐based approach on the same patch reef in 2017, we estimated a reef‐wide bioerosion rate of −1.9 (± 2.0, SD) kg m−2 yr−1, and a net carbonate production rate of 0.5 (± 0.3, SD) kg m−2 yr−1. Substituting the erosion rate we estimated with the markers would suggest that net carbonate production at this patch reef was lower and negative, −4.2 kg m−2 yr−1. This divergence could be a function of high erosion rates measured on the tops of Orbicella colonies, which may be preferentially targeted by parrotfish. Nonetheless, our study suggests the need for new field data to improve estimates of reef‐structure persistence as coral reefs continue to degrade.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving estimates of coral reef construction and erosion with in situ measurements

Kuffner

Toth

Hudson

et al. 2019

Limnology & Oceanography

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“…, Storlazzi et al. ). Although outplanting corals using nursery‐propagated stock can help restore some ecological functions (Montoya Maya et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most alarmingly, since there is no ecological redundancy in the Caribbean to replace these species in their reef-accretion function, many Caribbean reefs have shifted from net accretional to net erosional states Toth 2016, Yates et al 2017). Shifts to net erosional states are now a global phenomenon (Perry et al 2018), with concomitant increases in the vulnerability of coastal communities to inundation and shoreline erosion throughout the tropical world (Beck et al 2018, Storlazzi et al 2018. Although outplanting corals using nursery-propagated stock can help restore some ecological functions (Montoya Maya et al 2016) and may buy time to prevent regional extirpation, without sexual recombination and the shuffling of alleles to promote adaptation, the long-term future of these corals appears bleak.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Considerations for maximizing the adaptive potential of restored coral populations in the western Atlantic

Baums

Baker

Davies

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

187

198

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Active coral restoration typically involves two interventions: crossing gametes to facilitate sexual larval propagation; and fragmenting, growing, and outplanting adult colonies to enhance asexual propagation. From an evolutionary perspective, the goal of these efforts is to establish self-sustaining, sexually reproducing coral populations that have sufficient genetic and phenotypic variation to adapt to changing environments. Here, we provide concrete guidelines to help restoration practitioners meet this goal for most Caribbean species of interest. To enable the persistence of coral populations exposed to severe selection pressure from many stressors, a mixed provenance strategy is suggested: genetically unique colonies (genets) should be sourced both locally as well as from more distant, environmentally distinct sites. Sourcing three to four genets per reef along environmental gradients should be sufficient to capture a majority of intraspecies genetic diversity. It is best for practitioners to propagate genets with one or more phenotypic traits that are predicted to be valuable in the future, such as low partial mortality, high wound healing rate, high skeletal growth rate, bleaching resilience, infectious disease resilience, and high sexual reproductive output. Some effort should also be reserved for underperforming genets because colonies that grow poorly in nurseries sometimes thrive once returned to the reef and may harbor genetic variants with as yet unrecognized value. Outplants should be clustered in groups of four to six genets to enable successful fertilization upon maturation. Current evidence indicates that translocating genets among distant reefs is unlikely to be problematic from a population genetic perspective but will likely provide substantial adaptive benefits. Similarly, inbreeding depression is not a concern given that current practices only raise first-generation offspring. Thus, proceeding with the proposed management strategies even in the absence of a detailed population genetic analysis of the focal species at sites targeted for restoration is the best course of action. These basic guidelines should help maximize the adaptive potential of reef-building corals facing a rapidly changing environment.

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“…The effect of waves is often omitted in such analyses, since their assessment requires computationally expensive simulations and technical expertise. Waves are an important hazard component as they lead to an additional elevation in mean water level near the coast (Bertin et al 2012), drive coastal erosion (Vousdoukas et al 2012) and wave induced flooding (Storlazzi et al 2018). Moreover, most assessments of flood risk in view of climate change are based on the static inundation approach (Hinkel et al 2014;Hinkel et al 2010), which has been shown to overestimate flood extents (Bertin et al 2014;Gallien 2016;Ramirez et al 2016;Vousdoukas et al 2016a).…”

Section: General Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal hazard risk assessment for small islands: assessing the impact of climate change and disaster reduction measures on Ebeye (Marshall Islands)

2018

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Small island states around the world are among the areas most vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise. In this paper, we present results from an innovative methodology for a quantitative assessment of multiple hazards on coastal risks, driven by different hydro-meteorological events, and including the effects of climate change. Moreover, we take an additional step by including in the methodology the option to assess and compare the effectiveness of possible disaster risk reduction measures. The methodology is applied to a real case study at the island of Ebeye (the Republic of the Marshall Islands). An example is provided in which a rock revetment is implemented as a risk reduction measure for the island. Results show that yearly expected damages may increase, by the end of the century, by a factor of three to four, depending on the sea level rise scenario considered, while the number of yearly affected people may double. Putting a cap on the temperature increase (e.g. 1.5 vs. 2°C) according to the Paris Agreement may reduce damages and number of affected people by about 20 and 15%, respectively. However, impacts for same warming levels can vary substantially among different emission scenarios. Disaster risk reduction measures can be useful for mitigating risks in current and future situations but should be incorporated within long-term adaptive planning for these islands.

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Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding

Abstract: Sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding will damage freshwater resources of most atolls and soon render them uninhabitable.

Cited by 334 publications

References 34 publications

Improving estimates of coral reef construction and erosion with in situ measurements

Improving estimates of coral reef construction and erosion with in situ measurements

Considerations for maximizing the adaptive potential of restored coral populations in the western Atlantic

Coastal hazard risk assessment for small islands: assessing the impact of climate change and disaster reduction measures on Ebeye (Marshall Islands)

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