Mortality selection in the first three months of life and survival in the following thirty-three months in rural Veneto (North-East Italy) from 1816 to 1835

Abstract

BACKGROUNDA number of studies have examined the influence of life conditions in infancy (and pregnancy) on mortality risks in adulthood or old age. For those individuals who survived difficult life conditions, some scholars have found a prevalence of positive selection (relatively low mortality within the population), while others have observed the prevalence of a so-called scar-effect (relatively high mortality within the population). OBJECTIVEUsing micro-data characterized by broad internal mortality differences before the demographic transition (seven parishes within the region of Veneto, North-East Italy, 1816-35), we aim to understand whether children who survived high mortality risks during the first three months of life (early infant mortality) had a higher or a lower probability of surviving during the following 33 months (late infant mortality). METHODSUsing a Cox regression, we model the risk of dying during the period of 3-35 months of age, considering mortality level survived at age 0-2 months of age as the main explanatory variable. RESULTSWe show that positive selection prevailed. For cohorts who survived very severe early mortality selection (q 0-2 >400‰, where the subscripts are months of age), mortality

First signs of transition: The parallel decline of early baptism and early mortality in the province of Padua (northeast Italy), 1816‒1870

“…Thanks to this procedure, it has been possible to compute the real number of days of life of the child and the gap between birth and baptism. The quality of linkage is good, as already tested in a previous article on six parishes throughout the region (Piccione, Dalla-Zuanna, and Minello 2014). For information on quality of data on the 11 parishes here analysed, see Appendix.…”

“…By the early 1900s, however, it had steadily dropped to 150‰, the lowest level among all Italian regions. These peculiar swings attracted the interest of Italian scholars working on the end of the old demographic regime and the first steps of the demographic transition in Italy (Derosas 2002(Derosas , 2009Dalla Zuanna and Rosina 2011;Rosina and Zannini 2004;Pozzi 1991;Piccione, Dalla-Zuanna, and Minello 2014). These swings in infant mortality were due to the increase or reduction of winter mortality during the first month (neonatal mortality).…”

“…Since it is impossible to define the precise reason why we do not have the birth record, and in order to avoid a systematic under-estimation of mortality, we have reconstructed the birth registration for each of the 306 unlinked death registrations definitely born in the same parish, in order to calculate data on mortality in our 11 parishes (Piccione, Dalla-Zuanna, Minello 2014). We attributed a birth day compatible with the age at death noted by the priest, following a procedure similar to that used by Schofield and Wrigley (1979, p. 80, note 14) when reconstructing mortality in England during the 16 th and 17 th centuries.…”