Mortality prediction in pediatric postcardiotomy veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: A comparison of scoring systems

Abstract

BackgroundPediatric postcardiotomy veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) patients have high mortality and morbidity. There are currently three scoring systems available to predict mortality: the Pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction (PEP) model, Precannulation Pediatric Survival After VA-ECMO (Pedi-SAVE) score, and Postcannulation Pedi-SAVE score. These methods provide risk stratification scores for pediatric patients requiring ECMO for cardiac support. However, comparative validation of these scoring systems remains scarce. We aim to assess the ability of these models to predict outcomes in a cohort of pediatric patients undergoing VA-ECMO after cardiac surgery, and identify predictors of in-hospital mortality.MethodsA retrospective analysis of 101 children admitted to Fuwai Hospital who received VA-ECMO from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2020 was performed. Patients were divided into two groups, survivors (n = 49) and non-survivors (n = 52) according to in-hospital mortality. PEP model and Pedi-SAVE scores were calculated. The primary outcomes were the risk factors of in-hospital mortality, and the ability of the PEP model, Precannulation Pedi-SAVE and Postcannulation Pedi-SAVE scores to predict in-hospital mortality.ResultsPostcannulation Pedi-SAVE score accessing the entire ECMO process had the greatest area under receiver operator curve (AUROC), 0.816 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.733–0.899]. Pre-ECMO PEP model could predict in-hospital mortality [AUROC = 0.691 (95% CI: 0.565–0.817)], and Precannulation Pedi-SAVE score had the poorest prediction [AUROC = 0.582(95% CI: 0.471–0.694)]. Lactate value at ECMO implantation [OR = 1.199 (1.064–1.351), P = 0.003] and infectious complications [OR = 5.169 (1.652–16.172), P = 0.005] were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality.ConclusionPediatric cardiac ECMO scoring systems, including multiple risk factors before and during ECMO, were found to be useful in this cohort. Both the pre-ECMO PEP model and the Postcannulation Pedi-SAVE score were found to have high predictive value for in-hospital mortality in pediatric postcardiotomy VA-ECMO.

Pediatric Highlights From the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization Registry: 2017–2022

“…Internal and external validation of the post-cannulation Pedi-SAVE score demonstrated adequate predictive probability (c-statistic 0.71 [0.69–0.73]). 14 The Pedi-SAVE encompasses the largest pediatric cardiac ECMO population and compliments the Pediatric ECMO Prediction (PEP) model, which allows for severity of illness adjustment and benchmarking among ECMO centers for this population. 15…”

Short‐Term Mortality Among Pediatric Patients With Heart Diseases Undergoing Veno‐Arterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation: A Systematic Review and Meta‐Analysis

“…High‐quality evidence‐based risk prediction models could facilitate predicting absolute risk in the settings of VA‐ECMO in children. There have been 3 scoring systems, 81 composed of different factors, to predict the mortality of pediatric patients undergoing VA‐ECMO. To refine clinical predictive models for more precise predicting results, all of these significant potential variables related to mortality should be incorporated.…”