Mortality burden attributable to high and low ambient temperatures in China and its provinces: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Liu, Jiangmei; Liu, Tao; Burkart, Katrin; Wang, Haidong; He, Guanhao; Hu, Jianxiong; Xiao, Jianpeng; Yin, Peng; Wang, Lijun; Liang, Xiaofeng; Zeng, Fangfang; Stanaway, Jeffrey D; Bräuer, Michael; Ma, Wenjun; Zhou, Maigeng

doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100493

Cited by 13 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Previous studies had generally found that the death burden caused by low temperatures was higher than that of high temperatures ( 12 – 14 , 16 , 27 ). A study in China showed that 8.86% of CVD deaths were caused by low temperatures, and 0.17% were caused by high temperatures ( 16 ). Another study including 272 main Chinese cities reported that the PAFs attributable to low and high temperatures were 11.62 and 2.71%, respectively ( 14 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…The epidemiological evidence suggests a U- or J-shaped association between ambient temperatures and the risk of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular, which means both low and high temperatures may increase the risk of mortality ( 13 – 15 ). Recently, a study reported that 399.7 thousand deaths who were diagnosed with CVD were attributed to non-optimal temperatures across China in 2019, indicating a substantial burden of CVD due to non-optimum temperatures ( 16 ). However, there are only 3 years left to achieve the target of reducing CVD mortality in China by 15% by 2025 compared with 2015, which was adopted in the document Medium- to Long-Term Plan for the Prevention and Treatment of Chronic Diseases (2017–2025) ( 17 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures in China: An age-period-cohort analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Wei

Wang

Xia

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

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BackgroundAssociations between non-optimal temperatures and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk have been previously reported, yet the trends of CVD mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures remain unclear in China. We analyzed trends in CVD mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures and associations with age, period, and birth cohort.MethodsData were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) from 1990 to 2019. We used the age-period-cohort model to analyze age, period, and cohort effects in CVD mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures between 1990 and 2019.ResultsThe age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CVD attributable to non-optimal temperature generally declined in China from 1990 to 2019, whereas ischemic heart disease (IHD) increased slightly. Low temperatures have a greater death burden than high temperatures, but the death burden from high temperatures showed steady increases. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that CVD mortality decreased in all age groups except for IHD, and the decreases were greater in females than in males. The mortality of CVD attributable to non-optimal temperatures of males was higher than females. The mortality rate showed an upwards trend with age across all CVD categories. Period risks were generally found in unfavorable trends. The cohort effects showed a progressive downward trend during the entire period.ConclusionAlthough there have been reductions in CVD mortality attributable to non-optimum temperatures, the mortality of IHD has increased and the burden from non-optimal temperatures remains high in China. In the context of global climate change, our results call for more attention and strategies to address climate change that protect human health from non-optimal temperatures.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures in China: An age-period-cohort analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Wei

Wang

Xia

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

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“…The GBD Study reported that heat has led to ≈93 000 CVD deaths worldwide in 2019 alone. 10 , 11 Several studies have shown that short-term exposure, that is, hour-to-hour or day-to-day variations (on an hourly to daily basis) to high temperatures and heat waves increase the risk of CVD mortality and that the association’s strength varies from region to region (Table 1 ). 8 , 12 , 13 Similar evidence comes from a recent meta-analysis based on existing evidence from different climate zones throughout the world, which showed an increase of 2.1% in CVD-related mortality for every 1 °C rise in temperature (relative risk [RR], 1.021 [95% CI, 1.020–1.023]) and an increased risk of 11·7% in CVD mortality associated with heat waves (RR, 1.117 [95% CI, 1.093–1.141]).…”

Section: Short-term Effects Of Heat On Cvd Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat and Cardiovascular Mortality: An Epidemiological Perspective

Singh,

Areal,

Breitner

et al. 2024

Circulation Research

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As global temperatures rise, extreme heat events are projected to become more frequent and intense. Extreme heat causes a wide range of health effects, including an overall increase in morbidity and mortality. It is important to note that while there is sufficient epidemiological evidence for heat-related increases in all-cause mortality, evidence on the association between heat and cause-specific deaths such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality (and its more specific causes) is limited, with inconsistent findings. Existing systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies on heat and CVD mortality have summarized the available evidence. However, the target audience of such reviews is mainly limited to the specific field of environmental epidemiology. This overarching perspective aims to provide health professionals with a comprehensive overview of recent epidemiological evidence of how extreme heat is associated with CVD mortality. The rationale behind this broad perspective is that a better understanding of the effect of extreme heat on CVD mortality will help CVD health professionals optimize their plans to adapt to the changes brought about by climate change and heat events. To policymakers, this perspective would help formulate targeted mitigation, strengthen early warning systems, and develop better adaptation strategies. Despite the heterogeneity in evidence worldwide, due in part to different climatic conditions and population dynamics, there is a clear link between heat and CVD mortality. The risk has often been found to be higher in vulnerable subgroups, including older people, people with preexisting conditions, and the socioeconomically deprived. This perspective also highlights the lack of evidence from low- and middle-income countries and focuses on cause-specific CVD deaths. In addition, the perspective highlights the temporal changes in heat-related CVD deaths as well as the interactive effect of heat with other environmental factors and the potential biological pathways. Importantly, these various aspects of epidemiological studies have never been fully investigated and, therefore, the true extent of the impact of heat on CVD deaths remains largely unknown. Furthermore, this perspective also highlights the research gaps in epidemiological studies and the potential solutions to generate more robust evidence on the future consequences of heat on CVD deaths.

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“…Geographically, Tibet has the highest cold-spell deaths, and Hainan has the highest heat-wave deaths. 2 Many more extreme temperature events are bound to occur in the future, with even more aberrant timing of onset and duration due to changing climate patterns. In addition to the effects on health (heat stroke and mortality), the immediate impacts will be peak electricity overload on the grid system due to greater energy demand, evapotranspiration, crop droughts, and altering of biodiversity and ecological balance.…”

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confidence: 99%

Heatwave sears China: Need for actionable climate change adaptation to protect public health

2022

The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific

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Mortality burden attributable to high and low ambient temperatures in China and its provinces: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Cited by 13 publications

References 29 publications

Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures in China: An age-period-cohort analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures in China: An age-period-cohort analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Heat and Cardiovascular Mortality: An Epidemiological Perspective

Heatwave sears China: Need for actionable climate change adaptation to protect public health

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