Mortality and morbidity assessment attributed to short- and long-term exposure to fine particles in ambient air of Agadir city, Morocco: The AirQ model approach

Abstract

It is well established that respiratory mortality and morbidity are associated with high concentrations of fine particles such as PM2.5. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long- and short-term impacts of PM2.5 on the population of Agadir, Morocco, using AirQ 2.1.1 software. The mean PM2.5 values were obtained from data collected at three sites. Baseline incidence data were obtained from the literature, and relative risk (RR) values were referenced from the World Health Organization. This study quantified long-term total mortality (LT-TM), lung cancer mortality (LT-LC), morbidity from acute lower respiratory tract infections (LT-ALRI), and morbidity from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (LT-COPD), as well as short-term total mortality (ST-TM). The attributable proportions (AP) of LT-TM and LT-LC were estimated to 14.19% and 18.42%, respectively. Their excess deaths were estimated to 279 and 11 persons, respectively, and their RRs to 1.16 (95% CI: 1.10-1.22) and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.12-1.37), respectively. Furthermore, the AP of LT-ALRI and LT-COPD were estimated to 14.36% and 15.68%, respectively, their excess deaths to 33 and 4, and their RRs to 1.17 (95% CI: 1.11-1.31) and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00-1.02), respectively. In comparison, the AP of ST-TM was estimated to 1.27%, with a 25-person excess death rate. This study was conducted to inform decision-making and to promote local policies on ambient air quality.