Mortality and business cycles by level of development: Evidence from Mexico

González, Fidel; Quast, Troy

doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2010.09.047

Cited by 40 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Ruhm (2000) analyzed annual statistics for 50 US states over 20 years and found predominantly procyclical mortality. This conclusion has been largely confirmed by subsequent panel investigations (Ruhm, 2003, 2006, 2007; Neumayer, 2004; Tapia Granados, 2005b; Gerdtham and Ruhm, 2006; Buchmueller et al, 2007; Miller et al, 2009; Gonzalez and Quast, 2010, 2011). The spatial units in these studies vary (states, countries, regions, French departments) but we will consistently refer to them as states.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 55%

Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends

Ionides¹,

Wang²,

Granados³

2013

Ann. Appl. Stat.

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Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 55%

Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends

Ionides¹,

Wang²,

Granados³

2013

Ann. Appl. Stat.

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“…Studies that have tried to disentangle these causal effects suggest that indeed unemployment raises the risk of disease or death in individuals who suffer it (Burgard et al, ; Sullivan & von Wachter, ; Tapia Granados et al, ), as well as ill health raises the probability of becoming unemployed (Martikainen & Valkonen, ; Valkonen & Martikainen, ). On the other hand, the pattern of mortality rising over trend in periods of prosperity and falling below trend in recessions, that is, oscillating procyclically, has been found in a variety of high‐income market economies (Ogburn & Thomas, ; Tapia Granados & Diez Roux, ; Eyer, ; Ruhm, ; Gerdtham & Ruhm, ; Ruhm, ; Haaland & Telle, ; Sen, ; Tapia Granados, , , ; Tapia Granados & Ionides, , ; Neumayer, ; Rolden et al, ; Lindo, ) as well as some middle‐income economies (Abdala et al, ; Gonzalez & Quast, , ; Lin, ). In many of these studies in which total mortality and mortality due to major causes of death have been found to oscillate procyclically, a countercyclical oscillation has been found in suicide rates, which usually rise when the economy deteriorates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population health and the economy: Mortality and the Great Recession in Europe

Granados

Ionides

2017

Health Economics

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We analyze the evolution of mortality-based health indicators in 27 European countries before and after the start of the Great Recession. We find that in the countries where the crisis has been particularly severe, mortality reductions in 2007-2010 were considerably bigger than in 2004-2007. Panel models adjusted for space-invariant and time-invariant factors show that an increase of 1 percentage point in the national unemployment rate is associated with a reduction of 0.5% (p < .001) in the rate of age-adjusted mortality. The pattern of mortality oscillating procyclically is found for total and sex-specific mortality, cause-specific mortality due to major causes of death, and mortality for ages 30-44 and 75 and over, but not for ages 0-14. Suicides appear increasing when the economy decelerates-countercyclically-but the evidence is weak. Results are robust to using different weights in the regression, applying nonlinear methods for detrending, expanding the sample, and using as business cycle indicator gross domestic product per capita or employment-to-population ratios rather than the unemployment rate. We conclude that in the European experience of the past 20 years, recessions, on average, have beneficial short-term effects on mortality of the adult population.

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“…Morrell et al, 1993;Platt et al, 1992;Inoue et al, 2007;Noh, 2009;Chang et al, 2010;Kuroki, 2010;Lundin et al, 2012;Garcy and Vger, 2012;Pellegrini and Rodriguez-Monguio, 2013;Nordt et al, 2015;Webb and Kapur, 2015;Fountoulakis et al, 2015;Dos Santos, 2015;Bonamore et al, 2015;Hsu et al, 2015;Fountoulakis et al, 2015;Goldman-Mellor, 2016), income and business cycles (see, e.g. Wasserman, 1984;Ruhm, 2000;Miller et al, 2009;Gonzalez and Quast, 2010;Stuckler et al, 2011;Suhrcke and Stuckler, 2012) and fiscal austerity Collins, 2014, 2015;Branas et al, 2015), among others 1 , no study, according to our knowledge, has explored the impact of policy-related economic uncertainty per se on suicide mortality.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Economic Policy Uncertainty Related to Suicide Rates? Evidence from the United States

Antonakakis

Gupta

2016

Soc Indic Res

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While it has long been recognised that periods of economic uncertainty, characterised by increased unemployment and lower economic activity, are associated with increased suicide rates, no study has examined the direct impact of policy-related economic uncertainty on suicide mortality. The aim of this study is to provide the first systematic evidence of a relationship between economic policy uncertainty and suicide mortality in the United states over the period 1950-2013, while controlling for several other socioeconomic determinants of suicide mortality. The results of the analysis reveal that increased economic policy uncertainty is associated with increased suicide mortality of the youngest and the oldest segments of the male population in the United States, while the female population is found to be resilient to policy-related economic uncertainty.

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Mortality and business cycles by level of development: Evidence from Mexico

Cited by 40 publications

References 22 publications

Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends

Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends

Population health and the economy: Mortality and the Great Recession in Europe

Is Economic Policy Uncertainty Related to Suicide Rates? Evidence from the United States

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