Morocco's Coal to Clean Journey: Optimised Pathways for Decarbonisation and Energy Security

Abstract

Morocco depends on imported fossil fuels for 90% of its primary energy supply. This makes the country vulnerable to unstable fuel prices and supply cut-offs, and the reliance on fossil fuels releases CO2 emissions which contribute to climate change. Renewable energy expansion, facilitated by Morocco’s high potential for solar and wind capacity, could allow the country to improve its energy security and decarbonise its energy system, in line with its response to the Paris Agreement. This study uses OSeMOSYS (the Open Source Energy Modelling System) to produce six cost-minimised decarbonisation scenarios for Morocco that consider energy independence. The results show that Morocco can achieve most of its decarbonisation targets through bulk wind and solar energy, with a coal phase-out being possible by 2031 at the latest. Natural gas is replaced by biomass and nuclear energy, with some evidence that fuel imports may stay relevant for the foreseeable future. We conclude with policy recommendations. The study can provide insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Morocco's energy sector to achieve optimal pathways for decarbonisation.

Morocco's Coal to Clean Journey: Optimised Pathways for Decarbonisation and Energy Security

“…Energy demand, residual capacity and technology activity and capacity limits were updated for this study, and different constraints were applied to create the six scenarios. The original data for the LCv2 le is described in Cannone et al (2021;) and all updated input data and sources, the constraints applied for each scenario, and the instructions for running the scenarios on OSeMOSYS Cloud are described in the 'CCG: Morocco Coal to Clean Scenarios' Zenodo repository that accompanies this paper (Harland, 2023). The Methodology section in this paper is an abridged version of the full methodology in the Zenodo repository.…”

“…OSeMOSYS is a bottom-up, cost-optimisation model used for modelling future energy supply systems, and it ensures that all energy demands and constraints are met in its solution to the scenarios (Howells et al, 2011). Instructions for running the scenarios on OSeMOSYS Cloud are documented in the Zenodo repository (Harland, 2023).…”

“…These security scenarios investigate varying degrees of energy independence for Morocco; the Gas Diversi cation scenario models the diversi cation of Morocco's imported natural gas reliance between two differently priced commodities, the No Gas scenario models the effect of removing natural gas entirely from the energy system and the Independence 2050 scenario models the removal of all imported fuels from the energy system by 2050. The full list of constraints applied are described in the Zenodo repository (Harland, 2023). price that is US$5/GJ higher than the projected prices for the original imported natural gas commodity.…”

“…The study's scope is restricted to Morocco's energy system from 2015-2065, including the cooking and high heat sectors, excluding transportation. The full list of constraints and detailed description of the methodology for this paper is documented in the accompanying Zenodo repository: 'CCG: Morocco Coal to Clean Scenarios' (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7772178) (Harland, 2023).…”