More frequent, persistent, and deadly heat waves in the 21st century over the Eastern Mediterranean

Wedler, Marcel; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Hochman, Assaf

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161883

Cited by 37 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…* Mortality forecasting study. Note: the time periods of mortality trends considered by Wedler et al 80 are not captured by the above chart (paper projects mortality from 2026) .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Explanations for higher-than-expected mortality from April 2021: a scoping review

Scott,

McCartney,

Walsh

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Objectives: Many countries have continued to experience a higher-than-expected number of deaths following the peaks in mortality observed in the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. This scoping review aims to identify the different explanations proposed for sustained higher-than-expected mortality beyond the first pandemic year. Study design: Scoping review Methods: A systematic search of databases and grey literature sources was completed to identify English-language records proposing or investigating hypotheses for higher-than-expected mortality from April 2021 onwards in (sub)populations of high-income countries. Papers focused on survival following a diagnosis or intervention were excluded. Results were summarised narratively, and existing research prioritisation frameworks were adapted and applied to identify the hypotheses proposed as highest priority for further research. Results: Seventy eligible papers were identified. Most were opinion pieces or simply presented trends; few included investigation of suggested hypotheses. Numerous explanations for higher-than-expected mortality were proposed, with hypotheses relating to direct Covid-19 mortality, sequalae of Covid-19 infection, the health service impacts of the pandemic, wider pandemic impacts and socioeconomic factors identified as highest-priority for further research. Conclusions: The causes of continued higher-than-expected mortality are likely to be multiple and potentially interactive. This review will help to shape research into current mortality trends, with a critical understanding of this topic essential for achieving evidence-informed policy.

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“…* Mortality forecasting study. Note: the time periods of mortality trends considered by Wedler et al 80 are not captured by the above chart (paper projects mortality from 2026) .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…67 The final modelling study estimated mortality from heatwaves in the Eastern Mediterranean up to 2100. 80…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explanations for higher-than-expected mortality from April 2021: a scoping review

Scott,

McCartney,

Walsh

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…We assess the dynamical characteristics of T and WS over the vertical levels of TRAPPIST-1e, Earth, CMIP6, and ERA5 reanalysis datasets with a method grounded in dynamical systems theory. This approach combines Poincaré recurrences with extreme value theory40 , 64 , and it has been applied successfully to various climate fields and datasets on Earth 41,42,43,65 , and recently also to TRAPPIST-1e18.…”

Section: Dynamical Systems Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Further details of how d and θ are computed are provided in the Methods section. The dynamical systems framework has been applied to various climate datasets e.g., 41,42,43 . Indeed, Hochman et al18 have demonstrated that this framework can be used at the planetary scale for both Earth and TRAPPIST-1e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greater Climate Sensitivity and Variability on TRAPPIST-1e than Earth

Hochman

Luca

Komacek

2022

ApJ

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The atmospheres of rocky exoplanets are close to being characterized by astronomical observations, in part due to the commissioning of the JWST. These observations compel us to understand exoplanetary atmospheres, in the voyage to find habitable planets. With this aim, we investigate the effect that CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) has on exoplanets’ climate variability, by analyzing results from ExoCAM model simulations of the tidally locked TRAPPIST-1e exoplanet, an Earth-like aqua-planet, and Earth itself. First, we relate the differences between the planets to their elementary parameters. Then, we compare the sensitivity of the Earth analog and TRAPPIST-1e’s surface temperature and precipitation to pCO2. Our simulations suggest that the climatology and extremes of TRAPPIST-1e’s temperature are ∼1.5 times more sensitive to pCO2 relative to Earth. The precipitation sensitivity strongly depends on the specific region analyzed. Indeed, the precipitation near mid-latitude and equatorial substellar regions of TRAPPIST-1e is more sensitive to pCO2, and the precipitation sensitivity is ∼2 times larger in TRAPPIST-1e. A dynamical systems perspective, which provides information about how the atmosphere evolves in phase space, provides additional insights. Notably, an increase in pCO2 results in an increase in atmospheric persistence on both planets, and the persistence of TRAPPIST-1e is more sensitive to pCO2 than Earth. We conclude that the climate of TRAPPIST-1e may be more sensitive to pCO2, particularly on its dayside. This study documents a new pathway for understanding the effect that varying planetary parameters have on the climate variability of potentially habitable exoplanets and on Earth.

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“…Consequently, the mortality rate from heatstroke in the elderly population is reported to be over 50%. [11,12] Additionally, critical cases of CHS increased considerably in the summer of 2022 worldwide due to unprecedented high temperatures [13,14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and validation of a prognostic model of survival for classic heatstroke patients: A multicenter study

Wang

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background Classic heatstroke (CHS) is a life-threatening illness characterized by extreme hyperthermia, dysfunction of the central nervous system and multiorgan failure. Accurate predictive models are useful in the treatment decision-making process and risk stratification.This study was to develop and externally validate a prediction model of survival for hospitalized patients with CHS. Methods In this retrospective study, we enrolled patients with CHS who were hospitalized from June 2022 to September 2022 at 3 hospitals in Southwest Sichuan (training cohort) and 1 hospital in Central Sichuan (external validation cohort). Prognostic factors were identified utilizing least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and multivariate Cox regression analysis in the training cohort. A predictive model was developed based on identified prognostic factors, and a nomogram was built for visualization. The areas under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) and the calibration curve were utilized to assess the prognostic performance of the model in both the training and external validation cohorts. The Kaplan‒Meier method was used to calculate survival rates. Result A total of 189 patients (median age, 75 [68–81] years) were included. Social isolation, self-care ability, comorbidities, body temperature, heart rate, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), procalcitonin (PCT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and diarrhea were found to have a significant or near-significant association with worse prognosis among hospitalized CHS patients. The AUCs of the model in the training and validation cohorts were 0.994 (95% [CI], 0.975–0.999) and 0.815 (95% [CI], 0.596–0.956), respectively. The model's prediction and actual observation demonstrated strong concordance on the calibration curve regarding 7-day survival probability. According to K‒M survival plots, there were significant differences in survival between the low-risk and high-risk groups in the training cohort and borderline significant differences in the external validation cohort. Conclusion We designed and externally validated a prognostic prediction nomogram for CHS. This model has promising predictive performance and could be applied in clinical practice for managing patients with CHS.

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More frequent, persistent, and deadly heat waves in the 21st century over the Eastern Mediterranean

Cited by 37 publications

References 63 publications

Explanations for higher-than-expected mortality from April 2021: a scoping review

Explanations for higher-than-expected mortality from April 2021: a scoping review

Greater Climate Sensitivity and Variability on TRAPPIST-1e than Earth

Development and validation of a prognostic model of survival for classic heatstroke patients: A multicenter study

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