More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

Shin, Na-Yeon; Kug, Jong‐Seong; Stuecker, Malte F.; Jin, Fei‐Fei; Timmermann, Axel; Kim, Geon-Il

doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00324-9

Cited by 20 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…In addition, as more frequent CP EN events are projected under global warming (Shin et al, 2022), the TWNP SSD intensity changes related to the CP warming deserve further investigation. We will address those issues in the future.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given different changes in the SSD intensity in response to strong and moderate ENSO events, an issue worthy of investigation is the nonlinearity in the SSD intensity response to a linearly increasing ENSO forcing. In addition, as more frequent CP EN events are projected under global warming (Shin et al., 2022), the TWNP SSD intensity changes related to the CP warming deserve further investigation. We will address those issues in the future.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Diverse Impacts of ENSO on the Intensity of Tropical Western North Pacific Synoptic‐Scale Disturbances During Boreal Summer

Gu,

Wu,

Wang

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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Present study analyzes diverse impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the intensity of synoptic‐scale disturbances (SSDs) over the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP) during boreal summer. Asymmetric changes in the SSD intensity are detected in El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) developing summers. The increase in the SSD intensity is larger and located more eastward in EN developing summers compared to the decrease in LN developing summers. The asymmetric SSD intensity changes are associated with an eastward shift of anomalous low‐level cyclone and mid‐level ascent during EN developing summers relative to opposite anomalies during LN developing summers. The above difference is attributed to zonally asymmetric anomalous equatorial central‐eastern Paciﬁc heating and cooling in EN and LN years. Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model illustrate that the major reason for asymmetric TWNP SSD intensity changes is the asymmetric atmospheric response to opposite sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in EN and LN years. Comparisons between strong and moderate ENSO events show an obvious dependence of the SSD intensity change on the amplitude of EN, but not on the amplitude of LN. This indicates a stronger sensitivity to warmer SST than to colder SST. The enhancement of the TWNP SSD intensity is confined to a more westward longitude in Central than Eastern Pacific EN years with a comparable magnitude.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diverse Impacts of ENSO on the Intensity of Tropical Western North Pacific Synoptic‐Scale Disturbances During Boreal Summer

Gu,

Wu,

Wang

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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“…The negative correlation between precipitation anomaly and the SOI during spring and summer shows that severe drought was associated with La Niña events (Figure 4). On the global scale, severe droughts are associated with 70% or more scenarios project an increased frequency and severity of ENSO events, making amplified severe drought more likely (Cai et al, 2014;Dai, 2013;Ding et al, 2022;Shin et al, 2022). Anticipated drier climate, reduced vegetation greenness, increased litterfall, and decreased GPP may result in tree mortality and food web disruption (Carnicer et al, 2011), as well as aboveground biomass losses (Liu et al, 2015;Yang et al, 2018), potentially leading to adverse feedbacks to the global carbon cycle (Yang et al, 2018).…”

Section: Vegetation Growth and Disturbance Severitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Cross‐scale assessments of the impacts and resilience of subtropical montane cloud forests to chronic seasonal droughts and episodic typhoons

Wang,

Huang

2023

Global Change Biology

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Montane cloud forests (MCFs) are ecosystems frequently immersed in fog and are vital for the terrestrial hydrological cycle and biodiversity hotspots. However, the potential impacts of climate change, particularly intensified droughts and typhoons, on the persistence of ecosystems remain unclear. Our study conducted cross‐scale assessments using 6‐year (2016–2021) ground litterfall and 21‐year (2001–2021) satellite greenness data (the Enhanced Vegetation Index [EVI] and the EVI anomaly change [ΔEVI%]), gross primary productivity anomaly change (ΔGPP%), and meteorological variables (the standardized precipitation index [SPI] and wind speed). We found a positive correlation between summer EVI and ΔGPP% with the SPI‐3 (3‐month time scale), while winter litterfall showed a negative correlation. Maximum typhoon daily wind speed was negatively correlated with summer and the monthly ΔEVI% and ΔGPP%. These findings suggest vegetation damage and productivity loss were related to drought and typhoon intensities. Furthermore, our analysis highlighted that chronic seasonal droughts had more pronounced impacts on MCFs than severe typhoons, implying that high precipitation and frequent fog immersion do not necessarily mitigate the ramifications of water deficit on MCFs but might render MCFs more sensitive and vulnerable to drought. A significant negative correlation between the summer and winter ΔEVI% and ΔGPP% of the same year, suggesting disturbance severity during summer may facilitate vegetation regrowth and carbon accumulation in the subsequent winter. This finding may be attributed to the ecological resilience of MCFs, which enables them to recover from the previous summer. In the long‐term, our results indicated an increase in vegetation resilience over two decades in MCFs, likely driven by rising temperatures and elevated carbon dioxide levels. However, the enhancement of resilience might be overshadowed by the potential intensified droughts and typhoons in the future, potentially causing severe damage and insufficient recovery times for MCFs, thus raising concerns about uncertainties regarding their sustained resilience.

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“…For example, there are occurrences of independent El Niño, referred to as pure El Niño (Chakravorty et al 2013). On the other hand, it is widely reported that there are two dominant types of El Niño events, known as Eastern Paci c (EP) El Niño and Central Paci c (CP) El Niño, which are de ned based on the magnitude of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the zonal location of SST maxima (Jin 2022;Heidemann et al 2023;Zhang et al 2022;Shin et al 2022). It has been shown that there is a clear in uence of EP and CP El Niño on precipitation in the tropical region (Yuan et al 2012;Jin 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, EP and CP El Niño events have different effects on the tropical climate, including the Indian Ocean and surrounding regions (Wang et al 2017;Jin 2022). Given the importance of the different impacts and their response to greenhouse warming, Shin et al (2022) examined the response of EP and CP El Niño to global warming and reported that CP El Niño events are projected to become more frequent, while EP El Niño events are projected to become more intense. Therefore, given the importance of El Niño to the tropical climate, it is important to understand its impact on Sri Lanka.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distinct impacts of pure El Niño events on spring rainfall of Sri Lanka

Kajakokulan,

Pathirana,

Geng

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences the climate of the tropical Indo-Pacific region, but the specific impact of pure El Niño events on Sri Lanka's rainfall remains largely unexplored. By analyzing observational and reanalysis datasets from 1981 to 2023, we investigate this relationship, particularly during the El Niño decaying spring season. Our results show that during pure Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, Sri Lanka experiences enhanced spring rainfall due to warmer sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean and strong westerly winds over the Arabian Sea, which favor moisture convergence and subsequent rainfall enhancement over Sri Lanka. Conversely, during pure Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, spring rainfall is reduced due to cooler SST and stronger easterly winds inducing anti-cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea, resulting in moisture divergence and reduced rainfall. These contrasting responses highlight the distinct impacts of pure El Niño events on the rainfall of Sri Lanka and associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics, providing valuable insights for future climate projections and adaptation strategies in the country.

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More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

Cited by 20 publications

References 49 publications

Diverse Impacts of ENSO on the Intensity of Tropical Western North Pacific Synoptic‐Scale Disturbances During Boreal Summer

Diverse Impacts of ENSO on the Intensity of Tropical Western North Pacific Synoptic‐Scale Disturbances During Boreal Summer

Cross‐scale assessments of the impacts and resilience of subtropical montane cloud forests to chronic seasonal droughts and episodic typhoons

Distinct impacts of pure El Niño events on spring rainfall of Sri Lanka

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