More Frequent and Persistent Heatwaves Due To Increased Temperature Skewness Projected by a High‐Resolution Earth System Model

Abstract

Heatwaves are strongly associated with temperature distributions, but the mechanisms by which distributions are influenced by climate change remains unclear. Comparing simulations from a high‐spatial resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM‐HR) with those from low‐resolution models, we identify substantial improvements by CESM‐HR in reproducing observed Northern Hemisphere summer temperature skewness, as well as the frequency, intensity, persistence, and total heatwave days. Temperature skewness is strongly linked to land‐atmosphere interactions and atmospheric circulation. Under global warming projections, some regions exhibit enhanced temperature skewness, along with more frequent and persistent heatwaves of greater intensity. We find that in energy‐limited regimes, such as India, negative skewness in latent heat flux facilitates large positive skewness in sensible heat flux, which modulates near‐surface air temperatures. Skewness differences of latent and sensible heat fluxes are amplified under global warming, increasing the temperature skewness. We find that this contrasting flux mechanism is active in several heatwave‐prone regions.

Content Analysis of International News About the Heat Waves in India

“…This excerpt from the corpus demonstrates the urgency pointed out by the authors regarding the need for planning and adaptation to deal with more severe heat waves. Gao et al (2023) show that more frequent and persistent heat waves are due to rising global temperatures, highlighting the need for climate adaptation policies to address the increasing risks associated with climate change. "Extreme heat is becoming more common and intense in much of the world because of the human-caused climate crisis."…”

“…More frequent and persistent heat waves are due to rising global temperatures, for this scenario, the need for climate adaptation policies that address the growing risks associated with climate change is highlighted (Gao et al, 2023). Singh (2023) maps the vulnerability to heat in Indian urban centers, identifying areas at high risk of the climatic phenomenon occurring and proposes adaptation measures, added to this, he informs that India is prone to heat waves due to its uncontrolled urban development and without planning for sustainability, added to the huge number of people living in the place.…”