Monte Carlo Simulation Model of Energy Consumption in Wheat Production Systems Under Egyptian Conditions

Abstract

The Monte Carlo simulation method was used in this study to examine uncertainty propagation in a modeled irrigated wheat production system in Egypt. After running the Monte Carlo Simulation for 10000 runs for each operation, the alternative with higher frequency in each operation was selected and the energy consumption was calculated. The result of the current study was new system in addition to the nineteen systems involved. The total energy consumption was10205.09MJ/fed. This system consisted of Chisel plow 1st pass+ Disc harrow+ Steel leveler + Wooden Ridger + Mounted seed drill + Surface irrigation + Manual fertilizer Broadcasting + Manual operated knapsack sprayer + Combine. Among the nineteen systems involved in the study, the highest energy consumption system was system thirteen which consumed14650.8 MJ /Fed. The system of minimum energy consumption within the 19 systems used in this study was S4 with 10109.174 MJ /fed. This system consisted of Mould board Plow+ Disc harrow+ Wooden leveller+ Wooden ridger+ Mounted seed drill + Surface irrigation+ Manual fertilizer broadcasting + Manual operated knapsack Sprayer +Self-propelled mower+ Trailer + Stationary threshing machine. It can be concluded from the results of this study that Monte Carlo simulation model is capable of selecting the minimum energy consumption wheat production system.