Monsoonal Droughts In India – A Recent Assessment

Abstract

Drought frequencies during the years 1901–2010 were investigated over three spatial units – All India, 5 Homogeneous Regions (HR) and 36 Meteorological subdivisions (MSs). The All-India rainfall trend is in fact indicative of no trend, while the Northeast HR (NER) shows a significant decrease. Furthermore, a significant decrease in rainfallis to be observed over Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and the Southern Peninsular region, and a significant increase over West Bengal, Punjab, Haryana, Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema. There have been 21 All-India drought years during the last century, of which 13 were linked to El Niño. When compared with HRs, the WCR is highly prone to El Niño while the NER is not affected by this global tele-connection. Western Uttar Pradesh, Eastern Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Vidharbha and Telangana shared 11–10 drought occasions with El Niño. Maximum frequencies of droughts (21) were reported for East Madhya Pradesh within the WCR and Orissa within the Central Northeast Region (CNER), while Andaman, Nicobar and Rayalaseema experienced minimum drought episodes (12) over the last century. Sixty percent of the MSs in the West Central Region (WCR) and the Northwest Region (NWR) were coherent with All-India droughts. During the years 1918, 1972 and 2002, the majority of HRs (except NER) witnessed normal or below-normal rainfall. Western Madhya Pradesh within the WCR saw maximum drought events (13). The highest degree of simultaneous occurrence of drought years between the MSs and all-India concern Eastern Rajasthan, Western Madhya Pradesh, East and West Uttar Pradesh. The study also found that the MSs in HRs highly affected are East Rajasthan (NWR), West Madhya Pradesh (WCR), West and East Uttar Pradesh (CNER), NER and Coastal Karnataka (Peninsular Region). Western Uttar Pradesh, Eastern Rajasthan, Vidarbha and Telangana had 10–11 occasions when El Niño and Drought years occurred.

Observed and projected changes in extreme drought and wet-prone regions over India under CMIP5 RCP8.5 using a new vulnerability index

“…Further considering other time scales, the most prominent years were 1905, 1918, 1964, 1965, 1972, 1987, 2001, and at a 12-month scale. These extreme droughts have been reported in various literature mentioning the potential impact over diverse fields such as agriculture, water reservoir (Tyalagadi et al 2015;Samra 2004;Parthasarthy et al 1987Parthasarthy et al , 1994Shewale & Kumar 2005). It is well documented that 70% of the Indian region has suffered from the occurrence of extreme drought in 1918, which was designed as first large drought in India followed by second-largest drought in 1987 and 1905, which affected 48% and 37% of the area, respectively (Shewale & Kumar 2005).…”

Drought in South Asia: A Review of Drought Assessment and Prediction in South Asian Countries

“…The ENSO is one of the significant climate variables influenced by rainfall over the South Asian region. El Niño has been linked to 13 out of 21 droughts observed in India during the last century [138]. Rahman et al [139] analyzed SPI-3 and revealed that moderate and extreme droughts are associated with El-Nino events.…”

Trends and evaluation of agricultural policy in India

“…The most severe droughts in the past have affected more than 60% of the area of the entire country (De, Dube and Rao, 2005). Overall, the frequency of droughts in India is estimated to be between 1 in every 4 and 1 in every 5 years (Pandey and Bhandari, 2009;Tyalagadi, Gadgil and Krishnakumar, 2015;Saini and Gulati, 2014;Mall et al, 2006).…”