Monsoon drought over Java, Indonesia, during the past two centuries

D’Arrigo, Rosanne; Wilson, Rob; Palmer, Jonathan; Krusic, Paul J.; Curtis, Ashley; Sakulich, John; Bijaksana, Satria; Zulaikah, Siti; Ngkoimani, La Ode

doi:10.1029/2005gl025465

Cited by 95 publications

(91 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Mid-Holocene corals from the Mentawai Islands off Sumatra (Abram et al, 2007) suggest that an increase in Asian monsoon intensity, as some climate models have predicted, may intensify Indonesian droughts with 616 R. D'ARRIGO AND R. WILSON future greenhouse warming. These and other proxies can yield insight into past Indonesian drought variability (D'Arrigo et al 2006;Abram et al, 2007, D'Arrigo et al submitted, I.J. Climatol.).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

El Niño and Indian Ocean influences on Indonesian drought: implications for forecasting rainfall and crop productivity

D’Arrigo

Wilson

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Indonesia is impacted by severe droughts that cause major food shortages over much of the country, and have long been linked with El Niño events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Despite seasonal forecasts based on relatively complex climate models, the 1997-1998 'El Niño of the century' was still followed by huge shortfalls in crop production (e.g. a loss of 3 million tons of rice in Java alone), reflecting the large gap that can exist between these forecasts and their actual utilization in agricultural planning. Alternatively, simple predictive models of rainfall and crop yields for Indonesia and other Indian Ocean rim countries have utilized an index of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (Niño-3.4 SST), and related this index directly to indices of rainfall and crop productivity. However, these latter models have not included climatic information from the Indian Ocean, also implicated as a likely cause of drought in western Indonesia. Here we show that an index of Indian Ocean SSTs, when combined with the previously utilized Niño-3.4 SSTs, provides a significantly more accurate model of Sept-Dec drought (PDSI) over Java, Indonesia, than Niño-3.4 SSTs alone (ar 2 64.5% vs 37.9%). Based solely on data for the month of August, this model provides the best tradeoff between model skill and adequate lead time for the Sept-Dec rice planting season. Such simple models can be used to generate readily usable early warning forecasts of drought and crop failure risk in Indonesia, particularly in the western part of the country that is most influenced by Indian Ocean climate variability.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

El Niño and Indian Ocean influences on Indonesian drought: implications for forecasting rainfall and crop productivity

D’Arrigo

Wilson

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…In western Mongolia, the correlation coefficient for monthly anomalies of observed soil moisture content with PDSI is 0.50 (5% level) (Dai et al, 2004). There has been much success using treerings to reconstruct PDSI in North America (Cook et al, 1999;Fye et al, 2003), China (Li et al, 2006(Li et al, , 2007Fan et al, 2008), and Southeast Asia (D'Arrigo et al, 2006a;Sano et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A tree‐ring‐based drought index reconstruction for far‐western Mongolia: 1565–2004

Davi

Jacoby

D’Arrigo

et al. 2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Tree-ring records can provide longer, high-resolution records of climate variability in remote regions such as western Mongolia, where recorded data are extremely limited. Here, we use three absolutely dated tree-ring-width chronologies to reconstruct the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for a grid point in western Mongolia (48.75°N, 88.75°W). A reconstruction of the June-September PDSI for this region extends from 1565 to 2003 and explains 41% of the total variance in the instrumental PDSI. The 439-year reconstruction shows that starting in the 20th Century and continuing into the 21st Century there is a large-scale regional increase in growing-season moisture conditions compared to the prior centuries, a trend not seen in central or eastern Mongolian tree-ring reconstructions. This increasing trend in western Mongolia is consistent with station observations and other nearby proxy records. The wettest 5-year period of the reconstruction is 1741-1745 followed by 1993-1997, and the driest period is 1755-1759, followed by 1882-1886. Spectral analysis shows significant periodicities at approximately 22, 11, 7 and 5 years. The reconstruction shows similar trends to a PDSI reconstruction from NW China during the 20th Century and also correlates with lake-level data from nearby Khar-Us Nuur, Mongolia.

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“…Therefore, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been successfully used in tree-ring research to reconstruct large-scale and long-term drought and wetness variability over the United States and other global land areas (Briffa et al 1994;Cook et al 1999Cook et al , 2004Heim 2002;LloydHughes and Saunders 2002;Ntale and Gan 2003;Dai et al 2004;Zou et al 2005;D'Arrigo et al 2006). However, drought reconstructions based on tree-ring width in China are scarce except for the central Tian Shan area (Li et al 2006) and the northern He Lan Mountains (Li et al, in press), which demonstrate their feasibility for drought variability research in China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree-Ring Based Drought Reconstruction (A.D. 1855–2001) for the Qilian Mountains, Northwestern China

Tian¹,

Gou²,

Zhang³

et al. 2007

Tree-Ring Research

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A juniper (Juniperus przewalskii Kom) tree-ring width chronology has been developed from the westernmost forest of the Qilian Mountains. Our analyses demonstrate both temperature and precipitation have significant effects on tree growth and that both should be considered in climate reconstruction. Thus a regional drought history (A.D. 1855-2001) is reconstructed by calibrating with a linear interpolation through four Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) grid values nearest the sampling site. Our reconstruction extends the drought history of this area and also reveals that the most severe drought occurred in the 1920s. In the context of the drought history of western China, this extreme drought between 1925-1931 is consistent over a large surrounding region of Northwestern China. Multi-taper spectral analysis reveals the existence of significant 40-to 46-year, 29-year, and 2.1-to 3-year periods of variability. Overall, our study provides reliable information for the research of past drought variability in the Qilian Mountains, Northwestern China.

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Monsoon drought over Java, Indonesia, during the past two centuries

Cited by 95 publications

References 25 publications

El Niño and Indian Ocean influences on Indonesian drought: implications for forecasting rainfall and crop productivity

El Niño and Indian Ocean influences on Indonesian drought: implications for forecasting rainfall and crop productivity

A tree‐ring‐based drought index reconstruction for far‐western Mongolia: 1565–2004

Tree-Ring Based Drought Reconstruction (A.D. 1855–2001) for the Qilian Mountains, Northwestern China

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