Monkeypox Epidemic: A Throwback From Smallpox Eradication

Bethineedi, Lakshmi Deepak; Kutikuppala, LV Simhachalam; Kandi, Venkataramana

doi:10.7759/cureus.26577

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 3 publications

(3 reference statements)

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“…Unlike the outbreaks in humans in past decades [ 4 ], the 2022 epidemic outbreak constitutes the first significant case of global dispersion, affecting several countries and continents [ 5 ]. Third, the global discontinuation of vaccination programs against orthopoxviruses (i.e., vaccinia virus vaccine) after the eradication of smallpox potentially correlates with the re-emergence of this virus [ 7 ], implying the need to review global vaccination strategies to prevent or control new outbreaks of HMPX.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Like other poxviruses, the Monkeypox virus has evolved multiple mechanisms to evade the host’s immune system [ 54 ]. The discontinuation of smallpox vaccination, which provides cross-protection against Monkeypox, may have significantly contributed to the 2022 outbreak [ 7 ]. A study on the Jynneos vaccine and Monkeypox infection delves into the immune responses elicited, presenting fewer side effects than earlier smallpox vaccines [ 55 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The more significant the difference between α and N 0 , the faster the infected population will grow. This is deduced by taking the limit in Equation (7) to: lim β→∞…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since eradicating smallpox using the vaccinia virus in 1980, nearly four decades have passed without any orthopoxvirus vaccination programs. Consequently, discontinuing smallpox vaccination may have contributed to a reduction in, or even loss of, herd immunity against HMPX, potentially leading to an increase in the spread of the virus [ 7 ]. At present, the treatment for HMPX is primarily supportive, and antiviral medications like tecovirimat, cidofovir, and brincidofovir come with serious adverse effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparative Epidemiological Assessment of Monkeypox Infections on a Global and Continental Scale Using Logistic and Gompertz Mathematical Models

Marín-Sánchez,

Pesantes-Grados,

Pérez-Timaná

et al. 2023

Vaccines

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The monkeypox virus (MPXV) has caused an unusual epidemiological scenario—an epidemic within a pandemic (COVID-19). Despite the inherent evolutionary and adaptive capacity of poxviruses, one of the potential triggers for the emergence of this epidemic was the change in the status of orthopoxvirus vaccination and eradication programs. This epidemic outbreak of HMPX spread worldwide, with a notable frequency in Europe, North America, and South America. Due to these particularities, the objective of the present study was to assess and compare cases of HMPX in these geographical regions through logistic and Gompertz mathematical modeling over one year since its inception. We estimated the highest contagion rates (people per day) of 690, 230, 278, and 206 for the world, Europe, North America, and South America, respectively, in the logistic model. The equivalent values for the Gompertz model were 696, 268, 308, and 202 for the highest contagion rates. The Kruskal–Wallis Test indicated different means among the geographical regions affected by HMPX regarding case velocity, and the Wilcoxon pairwise test indicated the absence of significant differences between the case velocity means between Europe and South America. The coefficient of determination (R2) values in the logistic model varied from 0.8720 to 0.9023, and in the Gompertz model, they ranged from 0.9881 to 0.9988, indicating a better fit to the actual data when using the Gompertz model. The estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0) were more consistent in the logistic model, varying from 1.71 to 1.94 in the graphical method and from 1.75 to 1.95 in the analytical method. The comparative assessment of these mathematical modeling approaches permitted the establishment of the Gompertz model as the better-fitting model for the data and the logistic model for the R0. However, both models successfully represented the actual HMPX case data. The present study estimated relevant epidemiological data to understand better the geographic similarities and differences in the dynamics of HMPX.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The more significant the difference between α and N 0 , the faster the infected population will grow. This is deduced by taking the limit in Equation (7) to: lim β→∞…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparative Epidemiological Assessment of Monkeypox Infections on a Global and Continental Scale Using Logistic and Gompertz Mathematical Models

Marín-Sánchez,

Pesantes-Grados,

Pérez-Timaná

et al. 2023

Vaccines

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MNPDenseNet: Automated Monkeypox Detection Using Multiple Nested Patch Division and Pretrained DenseNet201

Demir,

Baygin,

Tuncer

et al. 2024

Multimed Tools Appl

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Background Monkeypox is a viral disease caused by the monkeypox virus (MPV). A surge in monkeypox infection has been reported since early May 2022, and the outbreak has been classified as a global health emergency as the situation continues to worsen. Early and accurate detection of the disease is required to control its spread. Machine learning methods offer fast and accurate detection of COVID-19 from chest X-rays, and chest computed tomography (CT) images. Likewise, computer vision techniques can automatically detect monkeypoxes from digital images, videos, and other inputs. Objectives In this paper, we propose an automated monkeypox detection model as the first step toward controlling its global spread. Materials and method A new dataset comprising 910 open-source images classified into five categories (healthy, monkeypox, chickenpox, smallpox, and zoster zona) was created. A new deep feature engineering architecture was proposed, which contained the following components: (i) multiple nested patch division, (ii) deep feature extraction, (iii) multiple feature selection by deploying neighborhood component analysis (NCA), Chi2, and ReliefF selectors, (iv) classification using SVM with 10-fold cross-validation, (v) voted results generation by deploying iterative hard majority voting (IHMV) and (vi) selection of the best vector by a greedy algorithm. Results Our proposal attained a 91.87% classification accuracy on the collected dataset. This is the best result of our presented framework, which was automatically selected from 70 generated results. Conclusions The computed classification results and findings demonstrated that monkeypox could be successfully detected using our proposed automated model.

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Will mpox disease caused by the human Mpox virus (MPXV) result in a pandemic-like situation similar to the COVID-19 pandemic

Kandi

2024

Discov Public Health

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The threat of the emergence of potential pandemics in the future has been looming ever since the world witnessed the worst-ever public health catastrophe following the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). The COVID-19 pandemic affected billions of people killing millions of people throughout the world. Now, we have been noticing an alarming rise in the cases of mpox disease caused by Mpox virus (MPXV). Although discovered in 1958, mpox was largely confined to monkeys before causing the first human infection in 1970. The MPXV is demonstrating a complex transmission behavior as noted by its discovery first in Denmark in monkeys imported from Singapore (Asia) and later spreading to humans causing repeated re-emergence. The virus was confined to the African nations including the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) before reemerging in the United States of America in 2003 affecting several people who had a history of contact with animals. Following scattered reports from endemic regions, the virus appears to have remerged after approximately two decades in 2022 involving the United States of America (USA) and European countries. The virus has been spreading across the globe as evidenced by its discovery in 60 countries in 2022 to more than 120 countries in the current year. It is therefore essential to improve the understanding of the MPXV, its epidemiology, pathogenicity and virulence, clinical features, and control and preventive measures and increase preparedness to efficiently tackle any future public health emergency.

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Monkeypox Epidemic: A Throwback From Smallpox Eradication

Cited by 5 publications

References 3 publications

Comparative Epidemiological Assessment of Monkeypox Infections on a Global and Continental Scale Using Logistic and Gompertz Mathematical Models

Comparative Epidemiological Assessment of Monkeypox Infections on a Global and Continental Scale Using Logistic and Gompertz Mathematical Models

MNPDenseNet: Automated Monkeypox Detection Using Multiple Nested Patch Division and Pretrained DenseNet201

Will mpox disease caused by the human Mpox virus (MPXV) result in a pandemic-like situation similar to the COVID-19 pandemic

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