Monkeypox: Early estimation of basic reproduction number R₀ in Europe

Abstract

This world outbreak of Monkeypox (MPX) infections outside Africa emerged on May 2022 in Europe and spread worldwide with unique characteristics: inter‐human contagion and infection in men without specific previous immunization, prevalently men‐who‐have‐sex‐with‐men (MSM). Phylogenetic analysis confirmed a unique clade, the West African clade, subclade IIb. On August 30, WHO stated 48 895 laboratory confirmed cases from 101 different countries, of which 28 050 were in Europe. It has therefore become important to define new epidemiological indices. Starting from our new surveillance system EpiMPX open data, we defined an early R0 measure, using European ECDC confirmed cases from the epidemic start to the end of August 2022; our early R0 pooled median is 2.44, with high variability between countries. We observed the higher R0 in Portugal and Germany, followed by Italy, Spain, and France. Anyway, these high estimates refer to the MSM group rather than to the general population. Early estimation of R0 can be used to support the epidemiological understanding of transmission dynamics and contain MPX from spreading in naive populations and core groups with risk factors. MPX is in an evolving situation with much to learn and to do to combat the current epidemic outbreak.

Anticipating the transmissibility of the 2022 mpox outbreak

“…Estimating R 0 for an infection in a population is critical to the implementation of disease control and prevention strategies 18,27 . Several studies have investigated fitting data to estimate parameters by mathematical modeling or machine learning methods to predict the mpox 40–44 . In this study, we have developed a novel deep learning model compared with others for evaluating the spread of the MPXV outbreak in the United Kingdom, Spain, and Germany.…”

“…18,27 Several studies have investigated fitting data to estimate parameters by mathematical modeling or machine learning methods to predict the mpox. [40][41][42][43][44] In this study, we have developed a novel deep learning model compared with others for evaluating the spread of the MPXV outbreak in the United Kingdom, Spain, and Germany. Our analysis contributes to recent models reported for similar outbreaks and indicates that the R 0 is >2.00 for the major epidemic countries, which means that MPXV is highly infectious, transmittable, and communicable in countries outside of Africa.…”

Characteristics of the sexual networks of gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver: implications for the transmission and control of mpox in Canada

“…This is comparable to the 2.4 observed in Italy and in a pooled analysis of data from European countries. 55,56 However, there is high variability in R 0 estimates from the pooled European analysis, with estimates ranging from 1.6 (Belgium) to 3.0 (Italy). 56 Despite this high R 0 , we estimated a cumulative incidence proportion of only 0.6-0.9% of GBM by October 2022.…”

The challenges of open data for future epidemic preparedness: The experience of the 2022 Ebolavirus outbreak in Uganda

“…In particular, in the early stages, there is a need to gain fundamental knowledge about the epidemiological characteristics of a new infection, from transmission potential to natural history (Branda et al, 2022a;Branda et al, 2022b). As outbreaks grow, there is a need to predict disease dynamics, estimate potential burden, and evaluate interventions (Branda et al, 2023). In the next steps, attention turns to estimating vaccine efficacy and monitoring outbreaks and evolutionary dynamics (Branda et al, 2020).…”