Monitoring the long-term desertification process and assessing the relative roles of its drivers in Central Asia

Jiang, Liangliang; Jiapaer, Guli; Bao, Anming; Kurban, Alishir; Guo, Hao; Zheng, Guoxiong; Maeyer, Philippe De

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.04.067

Cited by 111 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…Compared with the coverage in 2000, large areas of grassland have been degraded, resulting in increased grassland dispersal, landscape separation and fragmentation and ecological risks. In this study, we found that the ecology downstream of the ADD showed significant degradation, which has also been confirmed by previous studies [44,51,79].…”

Section: Temporal and Spatial Patterns Of The Erisupporting

confidence: 91%

Exploring Variability in Landscape Ecological Risk and Quantifying Its Driving Factors in the Amu Darya Delta

Bao

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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Examining the drivers of landscape ecological risk can provide scientific information for planning and landscape optimization. The landscapes of the Amu Darya Delta (ADD) have recently undergone great changes, leading to increases in landscape ecological risks. However, the relationships between landscape ecological risk and its driving factors are poorly understood. In this study, the ADD was selected to construct landscape ecological risk index (ERI) values for 2000 and 2015. Based on a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, the relationship between each of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), digital elevation model (DEM), crop yield, population density (POP), and road density and the spatiotemporal variation in ERI were explored. The results showed that the ERI decreased from the periphery of the ADD to the centre and that high-risk areas were distributed in the ADD’s downstream region, with the total area of high-risk areas increasing by 86.55% from 2000 to 2015. The ERI was spatially correlated with Moran’s I in 2000 and 2015, with correlation of 0.67 and 0.72, respectively. The GWR model indicated that in most ADD areas, the NDVI had a negative impact on the ERI, whereas LST and DEM had positive impacts on the ERI. Crop yield, road density and POP were positively correlated with the ERI in the central region of the ADD, at road nodes and in densely populated urban areas, respectively. Based on the findings of this study, we suggest that the ecological constraints of the aforementioned factors should be considered in the process of delta development and protection.

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Section: Temporal and Spatial Patterns Of The Erisupporting

confidence: 91%

Exploring Variability in Landscape Ecological Risk and Quantifying Its Driving Factors in the Amu Darya Delta

Bao

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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“…The first modal variance contribution rates of the PDSI in the EOF analysis under the four conditions-the 1.5 • C warming scenario using the PM formula, the 1.5 • C warming scenario using the TH formula, the 2.0 • C warming scenario using the PM formula, and the 2.0 • C warming scenario using the TH formula-in Central Asia were 27.4%, 38.7%, 22.6%, and 68.7%, respectively (Figure 7). The first mode of the EOF could reflect the spatial distribution characteristics of the most dominant spatial distribution of drought in Central Asia [63]. Thus, the first mode of drought was analyzed in our study.…”

Section: Spatial Variation In the Pdsimentioning

confidence: 98%

Projected Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Drought under Global Warming in Central Asia

Zhang

Zhao

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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Drought, one of the most common natural disasters that have the greatest impact on human social life, has been extremely challenging to accurately assess and predict. With global warming, it has become more important to make accurate drought predictions and assessments. In this study, based on climate model data provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), we used the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to analyze and project drought characteristics and their trends under two global warming scenarios—1.5 °C and 2.0 °C—in Central Asia. The results showed a marked decline in the PDSI in Central Asia under the influence of global warming, indicating that the drought situation in Central Asia would further worsen under both warming scenarios. Under the 1.5 °C warming scenario, the PDSI in Central Asia decreased first and then increased, and the change time was around 2080, while the PDSI values showed a continuous decline after 2025 in the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Under the two warming scenarios, the spatial characteristics of dry and wet areas in Central Asia are projected to change significantly in the future. In the 1.5 °C warming scenario, the frequency of drought and the proportion of arid areas in Central Asia were significantly higher than those under the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Using the Thornthwaite (TH) formula to calculate the PDSI produced an overestimation of drought, and the Penman–Monteith (PM) formula is therefore recommended to calculate the index.

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“…In C Asia, desertification is one of the major threats to the ecosystem for countries including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan (Jiang et al, 2019a, Jiang et al, 2019b. In Kazakhstan, over 75 % surface land-use areas suffered from land degradation and desertification; more than 14 % of pastures have been extremely or completely degraded (Issanova et al, 2014).…”

Section: Desertification Factsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Desertification has turned into a significant land degradation problem in the geographical regions that have been engaged with the BRI program, particularly in the "Belt " terrestrial routes and economic corridors (Dregne, 2002, Dregne andChou, 1992). For example, in Central Asia (Behnke, 2008, Jin et al, 2012, Jiang et al, 2019a, Jiang et al, 2019b, North China (Wang et al, 2008, Xu et al, 2019a, Xu et al, 2019b and Western Asia (Haktanir et al, 2004, EI Shaer, 2015, Darwish et al, 2004, Bayram andÖztürk, 2014, Amin, 2004, Alvi, 1995, Gul et al, 2019.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Desertification and its control along the route of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”: A critical review

Zang

Chan

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) was anticipated in 2013 to promote socioeconomic development and cooperation across countries in Asia, Europe, Africa and worldwide. Rapid land-use changes and infrastructure developments driven by the BRI program are expected in the coming decades. These anthropogenic effects are likely to exaggerate the process of de-vegetation, deforestation, accelerating desertification, which is one of the major threats to the BRI region. This manuscript studied the desertification facts (i.e. spatiotemporal pattern, impacts and impacting factors) and investigated key aspects for desertification control (i.e. mitigation and evaluation methods) in the BRI countries via an extensive review of literature. We found that desertification has been prevalent in the BRI countries, predominantly in C Asia, but quantitative assessment of desertification is yet fully understood. This review illustrated that desertification was driven by climatic dryness and mis-land-use/management activities, but their relative importance has yet been (quantitatively) assessed along the BRI countries. Given the negative impacts of desertification, these BRI countries have ratified the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) to reduce negative impacts. The implementation of desertification mitigation programmes are currently still lacking. We argued that desertification is usually evaluated via four type of approaches, including quantitative approaches, indirect detection, direct observation and biophysical measurement (e.g. vegetation growth). Future research should be applied by considering the research scope and data availability. Overall, we conclude that BRI countries should carry out transboundary control on desertification. Otherwise, this issue is likely to extend further imminent developments under the foremost BRI program.

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Monitoring the long-term desertification process and assessing the relative roles of its drivers in Central Asia

Cited by 111 publications

References 73 publications

Exploring Variability in Landscape Ecological Risk and Quantifying Its Driving Factors in the Amu Darya Delta

Exploring Variability in Landscape Ecological Risk and Quantifying Its Driving Factors in the Amu Darya Delta

Projected Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Drought under Global Warming in Central Asia

Desertification and its control along the route of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”: A critical review

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