Monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic in the context of widespread local transmission

García‐Basteiro, Alberto L.; Chaccour, Carlos; Guinovart, Caterina; Llupià, Anna; Brew, Joe; Trilla, Antoni; Plasència, Antoni

doi:10.1016/s2213-2600(20)30162-4

Cited by 96 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 5 publications

(4 reference statements)

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“…Another issue with comparing COVID-19 deaths across countries is the absence of a uniform way in classifying, recording and reporting COVID-19 deaths (7). There is a variation across countries in counting mortality "from" and mortality "with" COVID-19.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

News from the front: Estimation of excess mortality and life expectancy in the major epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

Ghislandi

Muttarak

Sauerberg

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Existing studies commonly rely on national official reports to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on human life. This is problematic because classification, estimation and reporting of COVID-19 mortality are not consistent across countries. To overcome these problems, this study exploits all cause daily death registrations data provided by the Italian Statistical Office (ISTAT) from January 1 to April 15, 2020. This allows us to: 1) calculate excess mortality in 2020 compared to the average of the years 2015 to 2019; and 2) estimate life expectancy on a seasonal and annual basis. Focusing on the five most severely hit provinces in Italy (Bergamo, Brescia, Cremona, Lodi and Piacenza) and Lombardy region, this analysis captures the impact of COVID-19 on mortality and life expectancy, which are likely to be underestimated when only national level data are considered. We find that seasonal life expectancy in 2020 in the five provinces reduced by 5.1 to 7.8 and 3.2 to 5.8 years for men and women, respectively. For annual life expectancy for the year 2020, in a scenario with no harvesting effect i.e. mortality rates resume to an average level of the years 2015-2019 after the end of the first epidemic wave, the years of life lost is equivalent to 2 to 3.5 years for men and 1.1. to 2.5 years for women in the five provinces. This represents the largest decline in life expectancy after the 1918 influenza pandemic and the Second World War.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

News from the front: Estimation of excess mortality and life expectancy in the major epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

Ghislandi

Muttarak

Sauerberg

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The progress of a pandemic is essentially hard to forecast due to lack of knowledge about the infectious agent and population response behaviours [17,18]. This implies that the planning of response measures must be dynamically adapted to surveillance reports on the disease and immunity status in the population that the measures are intended for [19,20]. SARS-Cov-2 is transmitted through droplets from coughs and sneezing and contact with infectious secretions [9].…”

Section: Public Health Responsementioning

confidence: 99%

Sports Health During the SARS-Cov-2 Pandemic

Timpka

2020

Sports Med

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Sports organisations must adopt pandemic strategies that are unmistakeably communicated to their memberships.Temporary frameworks for sports practices should be developed that harmonise with prevailing social distancing and quarantine regulations.Sports medical researchers and practitioners should cooperate with sports organisations and public health agencies to build trust and resilience and safeguard sports participation at all levels.

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“…Whilst previous ecological studies of other epidemics have utilised case or death counts as outcome, 21 these variables may be prone to bias due to variations in country level control measures including different testing strategies, 22 variations in population movement controls and differences in secondary attack rates within community cohorts 23 . The mean mortality rate was thus chosen as outcome instead, since it is independent of these highly variable parameters and may thus represent a more reliable indicator of the country-level severity of the COVID-19 pandemic Mean mortality rate was defined as the slope of the mean mortality curve (Figure 1), measured from the first day when more than 2 COVID-19 deaths were reported until either the mortality curve reached a peak value or the 1 st of May 2020, whichever occurred first.…”

Section: Outcomementioning

confidence: 99%

Country-level Determinants of the Severity of the First Global Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Ecological Study

Pana

Bhattacharya

Gamble

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: Reported death rates from different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic vary. Lack of universal testing and death underreporting make between-country comparisons difficult. The country-level determinants of COVID-19 mortality are unknown.Objective: Derive a measure of COVID-related death rates that is comparable across countries and identify its country-level predictors.Methods: An ecological study design of publicly available data was employed. Countries reporting >25 COVID-related deaths until 01/05/2020 were included. The outcome was the mean mortality rate from COVID-19, an estimate of the country-level daily increase in reported deaths during the ascending phase of the epidemic curve. Potential predictors assessed were most recently published Demographic parameters (population and population density, percentage population living in urban areas, median age, average body mass index, smoking prevalence), Economic parameters (Gross Domestic Product per capita; environmental parameters: pollution levels, mean temperature (January-April)), comorbidities (prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and cancer), health systems parameters (WHO Health Index and hospital beds per 10,000 population and international arrivals).Multivariable linear regression was used to analyse the data.Results: Thirty-one countries were included. Of all country-level predictors included in the multivariable model, only total number of international arrivals was significantly associated with the mean death rate: Beta 0.3798 (95% Confidence Interval 0.2414, 0.5182), P <0.001. Conclusion:International travel was directly associated with the mortality slope and thus potentially the spread of COVID-19. Stopping international travel, particularly from affected areas, may be the most effective strategy to control COVID outbreak and prevent related deaths.

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Monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic in the context of widespread local transmission

Cited by 96 publications

References 5 publications

News from the front: Estimation of excess mortality and life expectancy in the major epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

News from the front: Estimation of excess mortality and life expectancy in the major epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

Sports Health During the SARS-Cov-2 Pandemic

Country-level Determinants of the Severity of the First Global Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Ecological Study

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