Money can’t buy love but can it buy peace? Evidence from the EU Programme for Peace and Reconciliation (PEACE II)

Abstract

Efforts to evaluate third-party peacebuilding interventions are welcome but many studies rely on experimental approaches that might be at odds with the theories that underpin the discipline. Rigorously evaluating interventions ill-suited to experimental analyses is just as important, however, especially when programmes adopt novel approaches. In this article, we employ an instrumental variables approach to evaluate one such intervention – the EU Programme for Peace and Reconciliation (PEACE II). Following contemporary peacebuilding theories, PEACE II disseminated funds to grassroots organizations via unique intermediate funding bodies and an innovative open competition. Splitting Northern Ireland into 582 wards, we merge panel data on individuals’ perceptions of neighbourhood quality with PEACE II’s accounts. One-stage analyses show that individuals in treatment regions report significantly elevated perceptions. Two-stage approaches, accounting for biases arising from the rollout method, show no significant relationship. Post-estimation analyses imply that funding did not reach areas with the poorest observable indicators. We thus remain agnostic on the effectiveness of the funded projects but conclude that, despite solid theoretical foundations, weaknesses in the application of these theories hampered potential positive impacts. Future interventions can learn from this and should ensure stronger ties between the theoretical base and how these theories are applied to funding disbursement. JEL Codes: O18; F35

The microeconomics of violent conflict

“…First, we believe we will see a large growth in studies testing if there are 'cross-partial derivatives', for example on effects of economic interventions, such as job interventions or aid projects, on peacebuilding and state-building outcomes. Many donor projects claim to contribute to stabilization but fail to test this rigorously (Brück et al, 2016a;Brück and Ferguson, 2018). We expect such claims to be tested much more extensively in the future.…”

Making sense of segregation: Transitional thinking and contested space

“…North Belfast (the location of one of our workshops) is a district of NI’s largest city and has, according to the Belfast Interface Project (2011), 44 identified interface barriers and has historically suffered from heightened ‘intercommunal violence and unrest’. It remains an area of tension and turbulence, despite very considerable intervention in the form of EU peace monies and government funding (Brück and Ferguson, 2020; Heatley, 2004; Karari et al, 2013). Derry/Londonderry is similarly home to several interfaces.…”

Can Jobs Programs Build Peace?

“…Similar analogies can be drawn to "community-driven development" (CDD) programming, which is built on the idea that social cohesion emerges from individuals collaborating under the given institutional arrangements. However, when considered in terms of altering individual relationships, such programs have struggled to produce an impact (King, et al 2010;King and Samii 2014;Avdeenko and Gilligan 2015), even when they are designed to bring individuals of different social groups together (Brück and Ferguson 2020).…”