We thank Todd Keister and Guillermo Ordoñez for useful comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. Lastly, we also thank the NSF for financial support. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.