Monetary policy in times of uncertainties: evidence from Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco

Guizani, Brahim; Wierzbowska, Agata

doi:10.1080/17938120.2022.2074670

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…They further provide an interesting analysis of the Covid-19 shock and bank system vulnerability, which our paper does not cover. Guizani and Wierzbowska (2022) find that there is a chance for the CBT to move to a rule-based monetary policy after entering the democratization period of the Arab Spring.…”

Section: 22mentioning

confidence: 89%

Monetary policy and inflation targeting under global uncertainty: a SVAR approach for Tunisia

Trabelsi,

Ben Khaled

2023

JFEP

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Purpose The implementation of monetary policy by the central bank is an ongoing topic of discussion. This paper aims to explore monetary policy transmission shocks in times of uncertainty using the new World uncertainty index (WUI). The authors investigate the impact of crises, wars and pandemic shocks on selected macroeconomic variables. Design/methodology/approach The authors use unit root tests, structural vector autoregressive model and the Granger causality test according to Toda–Yamamoto with quarterly data over 1999–2022. Findings The results of this study show that in the short run, there is a unidirectional relationship between the money market rate and WUI, while the relationship between the latter and the money supply (M2) is bidirectional. The short-term effect runs from WUI to inflation. In the long run, the variance decomposition shows that global uncertainty explains around 12% of inflation pressures. The uncertainty caused by special events in the world creates positive shocks on inflation in Tunisia, which decreases the ability of the central bank to control inflation. Research limitations/implications The results have implications over necessary and urgent actions to be implemented for a progressive economic recovery but point to a necessary transition to an inflation-targeting regime. Originality/value Examining monetary policy under uncertainty is a recent phenomenon. The authors purposely use a novel WUI by Ahir et al. (2022) that is unexploited in literature.

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Section: 22mentioning

confidence: 89%

Monetary policy and inflation targeting under global uncertainty: a SVAR approach for Tunisia

Trabelsi,

Ben Khaled

2023

JFEP

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“…These responses have had positive impact on European economic system by increasing lending by banks and by making space for expansionary fiscal policies in the Eurozone's high debt countries which do not have fiscal wherewithal. Guizani and Wierzbowska [6] assessed the monetary policy stance in three countries, viz. Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco, based on the Taylor-rule framework.…”

Section: Recent Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monetary Policies in Recent Times

Lavanya

2024

Business, Management and Economics

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The quintessence of monetary policy is containing inflation, while maintaining growth. It is the inflation-growth trade-off. Central Banks such as Federal Reserve in the United States (US), European Central Bank (ECB) to those in Canada, China, Japan, India, Nigeria, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka among others have recently altered the interest rates to suit their existing economic conditions. This has an impact on currency as well as domino effect on industries and other businesses. Their capex cycle gets affected. There is an impact on Equated Monthly Instalments (EMIs) on consumer loans. The Net Interest Margins (NIMs) of banks are also affected. Ceteris paribus, there is an impact on GDP growth and international trade as well. With climate financing and carbon neutrality gaining currency, the inextricable and inevitable link between weather and agricultural output came to the fore. This got accentuated by global warming in general and El Nino in particular.

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“…Nguyen, Papyrakis and Van Bergeijk (2019) 8 performed a VAR analysis to examine the effects of monetary policy on the real economy in Vietnam using monthly data from 1998 to 2017. In other words, since the "Central Bank Act" came into force in January 1998.…”

Section: Empirical Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Jedidia, K. B., Dammak, T. B., & Kamel, H., (2019), «Trade-threshold Effect on Inflation in Tunisia: New Evidence Resulting from a Nonlinear Approach», International Economic Journal, 33(1), pp 149-169 8. Nguyen, T. M. L., Papyrakis, E., & Van Bergeijk, P. A, (2019), "Assessing the price and output effects of monetary policy in Vietnam: Evidence from a VAR analysis», Applied Economics, 51(44), pp 4800-4819 9.…”

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confidence: 99%

Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Controlling Inflation from the Perspective of the Tunisian Economy

2024

IJFMR

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This paper aims to empirically examine, for Tunisia, the effects of monetary policy in fighting inflation using ARDL modeling. The study is based on time series data from 2000 to 2021. The results show that the key interest rate has a positive and statistically significant effect on long-term inflation. The monetarist theory is valid in the short term, while the structural theory of inflation is valid for the case of Tunisia in the short and long term. As a result, monetary policy in Tunisia, applied with the aim of curbing inflation, is not effective. The study therefore recommends that economic policies should focus directly on the factors behind inflation, mainly imported inflation.

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Monetary policy in times of uncertainties: evidence from Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco

Cited by 3 publications

References 29 publications

Monetary policy and inflation targeting under global uncertainty: a SVAR approach for Tunisia

Monetary policy and inflation targeting under global uncertainty: a SVAR approach for Tunisia

Monetary Policies in Recent Times

Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Controlling Inflation from the Perspective of the Tunisian Economy

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