Monetary policy, external instruments, and heteroskedasticity

Abstract

We develop a structural vector autoregressive framework that combines external instruments and heteroskedasticity for identification of monetary policy shocks. We show that exploiting both types of information sharpens structural inference, allows testing the relevance and exogeneity condition for instruments separately using likelihood ratio tests, and facilitates the economic interpretation of the structural shock of interest. We test alternative instruments and find that narrative and model‐based measures are valid, while high‐frequency data instruments show signs of invalidity. Finally, we document that monetary shocks identified with both a valid instrument and heteroskedasticity have larger effects on production and prices than monetary shocks identified via an instrument only.

Is There an Information Channel of Monetary Policy?

“…Identification by heteroskedasticity has seen increasing implementation in recent research (Sims, 2021;Lütkepohl and Schlaak, 2022;Bruns and Lütkepohl, 2023;Schlaak et al, 2023;Jarociński, 2024). The approach enables the identification of structural shocks based only on the identifying assumption that the volatilities of the time series have changed.…”