Monetary Convergence Across the Economic Community of West African States: Lessons for the Envisioned West African Monetary Union

Abstract

Since its inauguration, the Economic Community of West African States has stressed its desire to advance regional integration through the establishment of a common single currency (the Eco). This policy has been considered advantageous given the economic benefits derived from the existence of one of the oldest sub-regional monetary unions across French-speaking West African Economies. For this reason, the West African Monetary Zone was created as a suggested second monetary zone consisting of English-speaking countries in the region in anticipation that in the long run, the two would converge. While empirical studies into the feasibility of achieving monetary integration in West Africa have provided some understanding of causal notions and possible effects, very few studies embrace complexity theory or attempt to use complexity-related conceptual notions in the identification and interpretation of patterns produced in longitudinal applications. Using both empirical and theoretical methods, this paper provides a unique longitudinal application of Dynamic Patterns Synthesis as an exploratory tool for observing the potential complexities that the proposed single currency arrangement across West Africa is likely to pose. The findings highlight multiple conjunctural causation in observing convergence and unpredictability across the Monetary Zone. These observations suggest more time is needed to achieve an established single currency.