Monetary Anti-Crisis Measures in the Conditions of Martial Law in Ukraine

Abstract

With the invasion of russian troops on the territory of Ukraine, the NBU faced the task of preventing the depreciation of the national currency, avoiding panic, and ensuring the stability of the banking system. This was achieved, in particular, due to anti-crisis monetary measures. The regulator was promptly making the necessary decisions, the review of which and the assessment of their effectiveness in the paradigm of the economy of war this study is devoted to. The set of tools of anti-crisis monetary management, prerequisites, factors and features of their application in the conditions of a full-scale military invasion are reviewed. A comparative-dynamic analysis of the main monetary indicators was conducted, which showed their manageability and relative stability. It’s proved that the main inflationary trend in Ukraine is characterized by uncertainty, formed under the influence of non-monetary factors of a subjective nature, which are outside the influence of monetary policy. These and other non-market factors provoked a reduction in international reserves and instability in the foreign exchange market. NBU reacted by introducing pre-emptive currency restrictions. It was determined that in order to avoid panic in the foreign exchange market, the NBU made such important and prompt decisions as fixing the exchange rate, introducing the necessary restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency and cross-border currency transactions, restricting withdrawal of funds from foreign currency accounts, providing the possibility of exchanging cash hryvnias abroad. To avoid uncontrolled devaluation and capital outflow, the NBU supported the foreign exchange market with interventions. Anti-crisis measures aimed at maintaining the liquidity of the banking system were analysed, including operations with certificates of deposit and government bonds, which in the conditions of martial law don't always achieve the goals of ensuring financial stability. These and other measures helped the regulator maintain the banking system's overall stability and uninterrupted operation.