Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in Poland

Haug, Alfred A.; Jędrzejowicz, Tomasz; Sznajderska, Anna

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2018.09.031

Cited by 12 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Yet, in the short term, the general long-term trend regarding the use of fiscal policies on competitiveness is maintained (Gorynia et al, 2021). The results obtained by us are similar to those obtained by Çebi and Çulha (2014); Bouakez and Eyquem (2015); Cacciatore and Traum (2018); Haug et al (2019); Gomes et al (2020); Postula and Raczkowski (2020). In contrast, the causal link between the two variables (fiscal policy and competitiveness) shows that fiscal policies positively influence competitiveness for all countries, but the reverse is achieved only for the least developed countries among the eleven.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption: evidence from Central and Eastern European countries

Ţigănaşu

Pascariu

Lupu

2022

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Research background: The transformations induced by global challenges call for new approaches towards competitiveness and thus require a consistent rethinking of strategies and mechanisms so that they could be better adapted to the constantly changing context. Prior to the European Union (EU) accession, the Central and Eastern European (CEE) states began a broad process of economic reforms, including trade liberalization, mass privatization, exchange rate liberalization, all of which led to a wider opening to new markets, the creation of new opportunities for production and to ensuring the competitiveness of companies on foreign markets. By far, the most important step in the post-communist period was joining the EU, achieved after 2004. Over time, these states have faced, on the one hand, issues related to addressing systemic vulnerabilities, and on the other hand, finding the most appropriate measures to induce competitiveness. The influence of public policies on competitiveness is still an issue that needs to be debated, our study proposing to examine the reaction of external competitiveness to the increase of government spending and corruption. Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of fiscal policies and corruption on the external competitiveness of the eleven countries from Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) for the period 1995?2020. The choice of this time interval is to better capture the trinomial relationship between competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption before and after the process of integration of the CEE states into the EU. Methods: The methodology chosen is based on ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) with structural breaks, the period taken into account being 1995?2020. The Unit root test of augmented Dickey?Fuller ADF (2016) was used to assess the time series stationarity. The test developed by Bai and Perron (2003) is applied to detect structural breaks, by resorting to the LM test. The tests for the cointegration between the considered variables, using the ARDL model, proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001), were also part of the research. The causality test of Granger et al. (2000) was used to assess the conditionality between the indicators. By applying these methods, it was highlighted that, especially after 2007, in the states under analysis, expansionary fiscal policies have led to internal devaluations of the currency, which ultimately increased external competitiveness, measured as real effective exchange rate. Instead, corruption has a negative impact on competitiveness. Findings & value added: The obtained results point out the relationship between competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption in CEE countries. In the case of those that have a high competitiveness, even if there are large government expenditures, there is also an economic environment conducive to the implementation of measures that generate added value on a large scale. Conversely, in countries where corruption is high, the impact of government fiscal policies on competitiveness is reduced due to the negative effects caused by this phenomenon. Our study brings at least two contributions to the literature. First of all, the research shows how a growth in public spending affects the competitiveness of CEE economies through the real exchange rate. Secondly, it takes into account the phenomenon of corruption applied to Eastern countries, emphasizing a decrease in the external competitiveness of these economies in response to the manifestation of corruption.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption: evidence from Central and Eastern European countries

Ţigănaşu

Pascariu

Lupu

2022

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“…The direction of change in inflation expectations, as well as the time horizon (+4 quarters), is in line with the lags of the monetary transmission mechanism in Poland identified in the empirical literature (e.g. Chmielewski et al, 2018;Kapuściński, 2018;Haug et al, 2019), as the strongest reaction of inflation to interest rate change occurs 3 to 7 quarters after the change.…”

Section: An Alternative Measure Of Monetary Policy Actionssupporting

confidence: 83%

Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy

et al. 2021

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Introduction 2 Data description 2.1 Private sector expectations 2.2 Central bank instruments 2.2.1 Monetary policy shock 2.2.2 Central bank tone shock2.2.3 Central bank projections 3 Empirical analysis 3.1 Model of expectations formation 3.2 Overview of the main results 3.2.1 The role of monetary policy actions 3.2.2 The role of central bank macroeconomic projections 3.2.3 The role of textual content of monetary policy minutes 3.2.4 The role of macroeconomic surprises 3.3 Robustness 3.3.1 An alternative measure of monetary policy actions 3.3.2 Forward guidance 3.3.3 Oil prices 3.3.4 Matching horizons of macroeconomic projection 4 Conclusions References Tables and figures Appendix Narodowy Bank Polski 4

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“…( 2014 ) or Haug et al. ( 2019 ) estimate the spending multiplier in case of Poland to values close to 0.6.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing fiscal multipliers in times of crisis: evidence from selected CEE countries

2023

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The COVID-19 pandemic proved to be an unprecedented socio-economic crisis in the last decades. More than three years after its outbreak, there is still uncertainty regarding its future evolution. National and international authorities adopted a prompt and synchronized response to limit the adverse effects of the health crisis, in terms of socio-economic damage. Against this background, this paper assesses the efficiency of the measures implemented by fiscal authorities in selected Central and Eastern European countries to ameliorate the economic repercussions of the crisis. The analysis reveals that the impact of expenditure-side measures is stronger than that of revenue-side ones. Additionally, the results of a time-varying parameter model indicate that the fiscal multipliers are higher in times of crisis. In view of the ongoing war in Ukraine, the related geopolitical turmoil and energy crisis, the findings of this paper are especially pertinent, given the need for additional fiscal support.

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Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in Poland

Cited by 12 publications

References 25 publications

Competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption: evidence from Central and Eastern European countries

Competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption: evidence from Central and Eastern European countries

Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy

Assessing fiscal multipliers in times of crisis: evidence from selected CEE countries

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