In a previous study, Karl Fischer (KF) titration was used to measure the mass of water in concentric layers of urea prill. The obtained data demonstrated that the grains of this fertiliser have a linear moisture profile. In the present paper, complementary to the previous one, a theoretical analysis of the behaviour of a spherical grain sample with a linear moisture profile during KF titration is presented. The obtained curve of titration fits the experimental data perfectly. The moisture content at the grain centre is four times greater than the average moisture content, and the layer with the highest water content is located at two-thirds of the radius from the centre. Using this theoretical grain model and assuming that the intensity of caking is proportional to the area and moisture content of the flat contact surface between broken or deformed grains, it is possible to explain many observed experimental data on fertiliser caking.